Posted on July, 5, 2016 at 10:23 am
Poor rainfall will cut this year’s maize harvest by 4.6 million bags in a drop that will hurt farmers’ earnings and spark increase in prices of the grain.
Food security report from the Ministry of Agriculture indicates that maize yields will this year fall to 32.2 million bags, down from the 36.8 million bags harvested in 2015, reflecting a 12 per cent drop.
The ministry reckons that the long rains of between March and May were inadequate, a sign that Kenya would rely on imports to meet its annual maize needs of nearly 40 million bags.
A poor crop for Kenya’s staple food is set to put pressure on inflation on high maize prices, cripple the milling plants and hit the government budget because of maize imports to ease the forecast shortage.
“Maize production is expected to decline by 12 per cent in 2016 compared to 2015 due to erratic rainfall witnessed in the months of March to May,” says the report.
“The overall achieved planted area declined marginally during 2016 long rains by about four per cent, notably in North Rift,” the report says, adding that 1.62 million acres is under the crop compared to last year’s 1.64 million.
Maize farmers in the North Rift, the country’s bread basket, were hit by lack of rain in the middle of applying top dressing fertiliser, slowing the absorption of the nutrient.
Top dressing is normally done during rainy season to allow for the nutrients to be absorbed by the plant after it has dissolved.
The 4.6 million bags are currently valued at Sh12.8 million bags based on prevailing price of Sh2, 800. This reflects the drop in farmers income in what could translate into bank loan defaults.
Reduced maize crop will expose Kenyans to surging prices and jerk inflation that has remained in the single digit range and within government targets.
The price of two kilogramme packet of maize flour crossed Sh100 in April, with millers attributing the price to increased cost of the raw material resulting from an acute grains shortage.
The price of a two kilogramme packet of Jogoo is retailing at Sh110 from Sh95 in March, while Soko and Pembe are also up by Sh15.
Maize prices have a big effect on inflation in Kenya’s economy where it is the staple food and accounts for a significant share of poor households’ budget.
The government last week released a million bags of top grade maize worth Sh2.5 billion from the state-owned Strategic Grain Reserve to curb the rally in flour prices.
The one million bags is equivalent to what Kenyans consume in 10 days and analysts reckon it ’is unlikely to curb the runaway flour prices ahead of harvests in September.
It has also depleted the strategic food reserve, which will hold about 1.2 million bags after the sale.
Source: Business Daily Africa