Kenya is entering its driest month so far this year, a new report shows.
It predicts extremely little chance of any rainfall in February.
This means the entire country will be hot and dry, except for some pockets of southern Kenya near Tanzania which might receive some rains.
“Temperature forecast for February shows warmer than usual conditions expected over Kenya,” the Dagoretti-corner based Igad Climate Prediction and Applications Centre said.
The country is also unlikely to experience any more floods soon.
ICPAC makes predictions for the entire Igad region, but the Kenya Meteorological Department will issue a more localised forecast for February in Kenya.
However, the Igad forecast offered hope for early rains this year.
The longer forecast for February to April shows entire Kenya might have wetter than the usual conditions for these months, beginning March.
Such a multi-month forecast is always prone to weather changes. “Wetter than usual conditions are expected over much of the region,” Igad said of their February-April prediction.
An assessment by the National Drought Management Authority showed the little rain expected this season will not be enough to reverse the nutritional problems being experienced in Northern Kenya.
“Malnutrition status remains critical in Turkana, Samburu, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, North Horr, Laisamis and East Pokot,” NDMA said in its food and nutrition security rapid assessment report which was released last week.
"It is in serious phase in West Pokot and Tana River, and the counties are projected to remain in the same phase for the next three months."
It said the current situation is a cumulative effect of consecutive failed seasons.
“Tana River and West Pokot counties were classified in serious phase while Saku and Moyale subcounties in Marsabit county were in alert phase,"the NDMA report said.
"The nutrition situation was projected to worsen in Turkana, Samburu, Mandera, Garissa, Wajir, Isiolo and North Horr and Laisamis due to worsening food security situation.”
According to the Famine Early Warning System Network, a Usaid-supported system that works closely with Kenya’s Ministry of Agriculture, the entire Horn of Africa region is facing food stress.
Fews Net anticipates more than 20 million people in Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia will need urgent humanitarian food assistance early this year to prevent a crisis or worse outcomes.
“The sharp increase in food assistance needs, which is over 70 per cent higher than food crises in 2016 and 2017, is primarily driven by the impacts of severe drought across the eastern portion of the region and by the impacts of conflict,” Fews Net said in a statement.
It added that most areas of the Horn are experiencing water shortages and record-low vegetation conditions, reflecting both degradation of pasture for livestock and wilting or absent crop growth.
“Household purchasing power is also declining due to a sharp increase in staple food prices, declining livestock prices, and low agricultural labour demand,” the statement said.
Source: The Star