Posted on February, 8, 2022 at 09:58 am
Drought is threatening cereal crops in several North African countries, according to Gro Intelligence, a climate analytics platform.
Much of Algeria is experiencing "severe" drought while "extreme" drought is widespread in Morocco and Tunisia.
The analytics firm is forecasting an increase in grain imports to what is already the world's largest wheat-importing region if the dry conditions persist through the remainder of the growing season, which ends in May.
"An increased reliance on imports could potentially strain national budgets and further fuel food price inflation," the forecaster said in a Jan. 18 article published on its website.
Accumulated precipitation during the August-to-December rainy season was 36 percent below the 10-year average in Algeria, 46 percent below normal in Morocco and 48 percent below normal in Tunisia.
The three North African countries purchased 2.63 million tonnes of Canadian durum in 2020-21, accounting for 43 percent of exports that year, according to Canadian Grain Commission statistics.
Daniel Ramage, director of market access and trade policy with Cereals Canada, said there is already pent-up demand from North Africa and other regions of the world.
World durum supply is extremely tight with stocks from the major exporters down almost 45 percent year-on-year.
If North Africa has another short crop that could lead to increased imports in 2022-23, he said.
Morocco's Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is at the lower end of its readings since 2000.
"Comparable growing conditions for this time of year were seen in 2001, when Morocco's wheat harvest was 56 percent below its five-year average, while imports rose 46 percent above average," said Gro Intelligence.
The United States Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service said the late arrival of rains delayed planting of Morocco's wheat and barley crops with sowing in some areas not completed until the end of December 2021.
Total area planted to wheat, durum and barley is 9.9 million acres, 11 percent below the 10-year average.
Ramage noted that harvest is primarily in May in Morocco and June in Algeria.
"There are still a few more months to go where the production outlook could change," he said.
The FAS confirmed that Morocco's vegetation index is below average but it too mentioned that the crop can still recover.
"Rainfall during March and April are critical for crop development and will determine the success of the 2022 production campaign," said the FAS in a Jan. 28 report.
Morocco suspended import duties on durum and wheat on Nov. 1, 2021, to build stocks, so the country is already short on supplies and can't afford another drought.
The FAS said Algeria's NDVI chart shows that vegetation looks sparse in the western region and highlands of that country.
"Again, this year, wheat and barley growing areas seem to be lacking adequate rain," it said in a Jan. 31 report.
The FAS does not have an up-to-date report for Tunisia.
Agriculture Canada is forecasting that Canadian farmers will plant 6.05 million acres of durum, a nine percent increase over last year.
Production is estimated at 5.52 million tonnes, more than double last year's output but below the 2016-20 average of six million tonnes.
Source: The Western Producer