Posted on March, 18, 2022 at 09:18 am
Soybeans and soy oil rallied on Thursday while meal stayed red. The losses in meal ended at $0.30 to $3.90/ton, which left May just $17.50 under the LoC high from Monday. Beans closed 18 to 21 1/4 cents higher in old crop and 9 to 10 1/4 cents higher for new crop. Soybean oil prices rallied back triple digits with May having recovered 108 points.
Weekly Export Sales data showed 1.253 MMT of old crop beans were sold during the week that ended 3/10. That was inline with estimates. New crop sales were 477k MT, with analysts’ expectations for at least 500k MT. Soybean exports from the week came in at 714k MT, for a season total of 42.325 MMT (1.555 bbu). That is 74.4% of USDA’s forecast.
As for the products, USDA reported 147,363 MT of soymeal was sold during the week that ended 3/10. That was inline with pre-report estimates, but was 56% below last week and 44% below the same week last year. Soymeal exports were 252k MT for a MYTD total of 5.69 MMT. Soy oil bookings were reported at 22,639 MT. BO shipments were a 6-week low of 6.6k MT, leaving accumulated shipments 17% behind last year’s pace at 415.7k MT through 3/10.
Argentina’s government has ceased the new issuance of export registrations for soy products. Existing contracts are still able to leave, but until the new export laws are finalized no new sales are allowed. The current rates are 31% for the products and 33% for the whole bean. Industry insiders are preparing for a 2ppt hike to get the products matched with beans at 33%. Argentinian data suggests inflation is running at ~52%.
The International Grains Council cut their global soy output outlook by 3 MMT to 350 flat – mostly via a 2.7 MMT Brazilian reduction. Global trade was also cut by 3 MMT, with a 1.8 cut to Brazil and a 500k MT cut in Argentina. The U.S. was forecasted to grab 300k MT with a 57 MMT forecast. Chinese imports were trimmed 1.5 MMT to 94.8. Overall global stocks were seen at 42 MMT, just a 1 MMT drop from February.
Source: Barchart