Posted on April, 4, 2022 at 09:26 am
Friday’s price action in the soy complex shows the sensitivity to any bearish information as analysts digested the USDA March Quarterly Stocks Planting Intentions report and extrapolated USDA survey acreage and trend yield data. Clearly there is work to be done yet on these balance sheets given the US farmer is only just thinking about planting.
Wider commodities markets were weighed down by a weaker crude oil complex. Western countries are, for the most part, drawing down strategic inventories to buffer the global tightness, giving the market some respite.
Weather in South American is looking good for the Safrinha corn crop. StoneX increased its estimate from 89.4 million tonnes (Mt) to 91.9Mt.
The southern coastal city of Odesa came under attack Sunday morning, with a local official saying a Russian missile strike had hit “critical infrastructure.” A fuel depot in the city is burning, according to a CNN team on the scene.
Ukrainian grain exports in March were four times less than February levels, due to the Russian invasion, the economy ministry said on Sunday. March grain shipments overseas included 1.1Mt corn, 0.309Mt wheat and 0.118Mt sunflowerseed oil. Ukraine was the world’s fourth-largest grain exporter in the 2020/21 season, according to International Grains Council data, most shipping via the Black Sea. But with war raging along much of the coast, traders are being forced to transport more grain by rail.
Last week’s wheat numbers were steady, wide bid/offer spreads remaining.
Barley markets in SA continued firm as were northern feed grains.
Canola was a mixed bag, amid thin liquidity. Current crop values bounced around all last week and ended softer. New crop showed some further strength.
Weather remains key for growers and execution teams. Execution teams and traders are battling east coast weather in delays for loading vessels and domestic outturns.
Growers in South Australia are now looking for signs of a break in weather as the East Coast system continue to build and fall as La Nina strengthens. WA growers have had nice rain, perhaps a week or two early but most certainly welcome.
Source: Grain Central