Posted on May, 1, 2023 at 11:01 pm
A crucial economic lifeline for Ukraine is being jeopardized by eastern European governments contending with the limits of public support for Kyiv as the war stretches into its second year.
Nowhere is the shift more vivid than in Poland, a stalwart ally of Ukraine that has led the European Union in denouncing the Russian invasion. Warsaw issued a surprise ban on Ukrainian grain imports last month after weeks of street protests by Polish farmers over a grain glut that triggered a collapse in prices. Restrictions quickly followed in Hungary, Slovakia and Bulgaria.
Poland’s ban was meant to ensure that solidarity with Kyiv doesn’t alienate voters, according to an official familiar with the government’s thinking. It's a rare admission of mounting anxiety within the ruling Law & Justice party that it risks losing a key part of its base six months before a tightly contested election.
Even as Law & Justice has maintained a lead in polls ahead of the vote slated for October, a fragmented landscape could loosen the party’s grip on power. Long the bastion of Poland’s staunchly Catholic conservatives, its base in the countryside has been crucial to electoral success since the party swept to power in 2015. The prospect of leaving angry farmers in the lurch isn’t part of a winning agenda as officials swing into campaign mode.
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One shift spurring action is the recent gain in opinion polls by a far-right, anti-European Union alliance, Confederation, which has channeled public wariness over an influx of Ukrainian refugees and unlimited military aid to Kyiv.
Law & Justice leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski — Poland’s de-facto leader — spelled out the anxiety even as he put a positive spin on the grain embargo, saying the “tough decision” would ultimately help Kyiv.
“It’s not in the interest of our friends that Poland is plunged into a crisis — and that we see people coming to power here who will change the policy of radical support for Ukraine,” Kaczynski told a crowd, some clad in traditional outfits in a school auditorium last month in the village of Lyse in northeastern Poland, about 150 kilometers (94 miles) north of Warsaw.
Source: Bloomberg