Posted on August, 22, 2023 at 09:32 am
Harvesting of the main cereal season has mostly been completed under mixed conditions in the region resulting in improved availability and access to food. Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected in surplus-producing areas of Zimbabwe, Lesotho, Madagascar, DRC, central and northern Mozambique, and central and northern Malawi through most of the projection period. However, in areas where the 2023 harvest was impacted by cyclones, flooding, or prolonged dry spells, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected through the projection period. Households in conflict-affected areas of Cabo Delgado and internally displaced households in Ituri, North Kivu, and South Kivu in the DRC continue to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes due to limited agricultural production and access to income. Similarly, most returnees are continuing to recover their typical food and income sources and are likely continuing to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.
Improved market supply of maize grain following the 2023 harvest has resulted in the price stability of staple foods across much of southern Africa. Most households are relying on their harvests for food, reducing market demand for grain. For example, in Maputo, Mozambique, maize grain prices declined 15 percent in June, while maize grain prices in Zimbabwe are 25 percent lower than in March 2023, the peak of the lean season. Nevertheless, maize grain prices in the region remain primarily higher than last year. In areas where crop production was below average or failed due to weather shocks, such as Malawi, maize grain prices are increasing as household stocks decline and market demand increases. Additionally, the devaluation of local currencies in Zimbabwe, Malawi, Madagascar, and the DRC is likely also contributing to lower household purchasing power, particularly poor urban households and other market-dependent households impacted by conflict or weather shocks.
Following the conclusion of the harvest, most households in the region are engaging in off-farm income activities such as self-employment, casual labor, petty trading, and the production and sale of vegetables to earn an income in the post-harvest period. However, around October, land preparation and planting for the 2023/2034 agricultural season will likely be impacted by a delayed start or erratic rainfall due to El Niño, limiting casual labor opportunities for poor households as the lean season begins. In areas that recorded a below-average 2023 harvest, a decline in income from casual labor opportunities will likely negatively impact household purchasing power at a time when households typically are market dependent.
Source: ReliefWeb