The predicted El Niño rains could be disastrous for farmers in the Western region as it may affect drying of maize.
Maize harvest will be at the peak in October when the rains are expected to start in many parts of the country.
Kenya Meteorological department director Dr David Gikungu said El Niño conditions are likely to persist throughout the October-November-December (OND) season.
He said from October to December, most parts of the country will experience enhanced (above average) rainfall that will be fairly distributed in some areas and well distributed in others in both time and space.
The forecast also showed a high probability that some counties in the Northeastern region are likely to experience above-average rainfall.
“This will be driven by warmer than average Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean indicating the presence of El Niño conditions. According to most of the global climate models, El Niño conditions are likely to persist throughout the OND season,” Gikungu said.
Experts have raised concerns that if maize is not properly dried, it could lead to aflatoxin contamination.
But last month while visiting maize farmers in Uasin Gishu county, Agriculture CS Mithika Linturi said the government has acquired 100 mobile dryers that will assist farmers in drying their grain.
He said the dryers will assist farmers in reducing post-harvest losses by ensuring their maize is properly dried and stored.
“The mobile dryers will enable farmers to preserve the quality of their maize and increase their income. This is a significant development as post-harvest losses have been a major challenge for farmers in the past,” the CS said.
Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organisation director general Eliud Kireger said the predicted El Niño may be a blessing for farmers in the Eastern and Central regions.
“But a disaster for farmers in the Western regions who will be harvesting maize from October,” he said.
The OND outlook shows that rainfall is expected to continue throughout the season in the Lake Victoria Basin, Highlands West of the Rift Valley and Central and South Rift Valley areas.
These includes counties of Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Kisii, Nyamira, Baringo, Uasin Gishu, West Pokot, Elgeyo Marakwet, Nandi, Kericho, Bungoma, Kakamega, Busia, Trans Nzoia, West Pokot, Vihiga, Laikipia West, Nakuru and Narok.
Kireger said the rains may force farmers to harvest their maize before it has fully dried and this may lead to aflatoxin contamination.
He urged national and county governments to support farmers with driers to reduce post-harvest losses.
The Ministry of Agriculture has said the country is expecting a bumper harvest this year of between 35 million to 40 million 90kg bags, but the Kireger said this can be lost due to the heavy rains.
He said under normal circumstances, maize should be dried to 13 per cent moisture content to avoid rotting and aflatoxin contamination.
"But the heavy rains may pose a challenge for farmers to dry their maize properly due to lack of dryers or even proper storage facilities,” Kireger said.
Storage is also a big challenge. Most farmers do not have proper stores and many of the farmers dry their maize in open spaces.
"The maize needs to be dried before storage and with the rains they will not be able to dry in open spaces and if this happens, we are likely to have incidences of aflatoxin contamination,” he said.
Source: The Star