Posted on September, 13, 2023 at 02:01 am
HIGHLIGHTS
▪ The ongoing June-September seasonal rains in northern areas of the region have had mixed performance. The cumulative rains between June and August have been normal to wetter-thannormal in Sudan, western Ethiopia, western Eritrea, and parts of northern South Sudan. The rains have been depressed in southwest, central and northeast Ethiopia, rural Djibouti, southern Eritrea, northern and northeast Uganda, and northern Somalia.
▪ The seasonal rains exhibited spatial-temporal variation with a favourable performance in June followed by depressed situation in July and August across many areas. The depressed rains have impacted on seasonal crop development in northern states of South Sudan, northern and northeast Uganda, and Ethiopia’s southwest, central and northeast areas. Below-average harvests are expected in these areas, with likely influence on food security in coming months.
▪ In Sudan, despite favourable rains so far, the ongoing conflict and insecurity in the greater Darfur and Greater Kordofan regions has impended access to cultivating fields in several areas, resulting in reduced plantings. Elsewhere in the eastern states, not grossly affected by conflicts, seasonal crop production is constrained by inadequate access and high cost of agricultural inputs, and financial resources to support mechanised and irrigated agriculture. These factors will impact on the annual food production and availability this year despite the prevailing high food insecurity.
▪ By end of August, the vegetation condition had deteriorated compared to early June including in the north of the region despite an ongoing rainfall season. Better-than-average vegetation was only evident in southern and western Sudan, and in eastern South Sudan while other areas were in normal to poor status due to insufficient moisture for crops and pastures/browse development. Water resources have not adequately replenished. Inadequate pasture regeneration and water replenishment will lead to insufficient livestock grazing resources during the dry season, especially in early 2024.
▪ Elsewhere in the pastoral and agropastoral areas of Kenya, Somalia and south-southeast Ethiopia, vegetation continues to marginally deteriorate due to dry weather and utilisation but water resources are available. Significant vegetation deficits in south-central Somalia signals limited availability of grazing resources. The grazing resources will continue to deteriorate in September but are expected to improve during the October-December short rains.
▪ Livestock are in good to fair body condition except in pastoral and agropastoral areas with insufficient grazing resources (e.g., south-central Somalia). However, milk production and consumption are still low following livestock deaths during the prolonged 2020-2023 drought.
Although reproduction has started, it will take a long time for households to rebuild/restock their herds.
▪ The rainfall forecast for September indicates a likelihood of continued depressed rains in north of the region except in western Ethiopia and Sudan, associated with the influence of the El Nino phenomenon. Evidence shows that El Nino events lead to depressed rains in parts of Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan, Djibouti, and southwest Eritrea particularly from July through September. This will limit the opportunity for affected crops to recover or for rangelands and water resources to further improve.
▪ Wetter-than-normal rains are forecasted over much of the equatorial region from October through early 2024. Areas with the highest probabilities for enhanced rains are eastern Kenya, southern Somalia and south Ethiopia.
▪ Positively, enhanced rains by end of year will improve water availability, support rangelands recovery from the effects of the prolonged 2020-2023 drought and improve pasture availability for livestock, and support seasonal crop production. Nevertheless, it will trigger flooding (riverine and flash floods) causing human displacement and increase needs, damage to properties and croplands/planted crops, hinder transportation and supply of goods and services in some areas, limit access to services (schools and health facilities), increase chances of water-borne diseases (e.g., cholera, malaria), and facilitate an upsurge of plant and livestock pests and diseases.
▪ Moreover, favourable climatic and vegetation conditions might trigger breeding and spread of Desert Locusts, currently in parts of Tigray (Ethiopia) and Nile River (Sudan) unless effective and timely control measures are implemented.
▪ There is need for preparedness to mitigate or respond to the impacts of a poor June-September season, and a wetter-than-normal October-December period.
Source: ReliefWeb