Posted on September, 14, 2023 at 08:39 am
OVERVIEW
Communities in Eastern Africa, some of which are already dealing with conflict, displacement or recovery from recent disasters, are now confronting another challenge. El Niño conditions are currently present in the Pacific Ocean and are expected to continue until at least early 2024. Above-average rainfall is expected in eastern parts of Eastern Africa and below-average rainfall is expected in western areas. The situation may be exacerbated by a shift to a forecasted positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which typically enhances wetter conditions in the region.
The forecast for an early start to the rainy season could result in increased crop production during the January to February harvest window, potentially leading to lower food costs and improved food security. However, given Eastern Africa's existing vulnerabilities, the impacts of this El Niño and a possible positive IOD could be severe.
Both the last major El Niño, in 2015 and 2016, and the last positive IOD in Eastern Africa, in 2019, caused widespread flooding and contributed to displacement, livelihood losses and disease outbreaks.
Comprehensive preparedness and response strategies are urgently needed to mitigate the complex risks arising from these fluctuating climate conditions, in addition to the existing humanitarian challenges in the region.
Source: Relief