Posted on January, 12, 2024 at 09:09 am
Global corn production is forecast to increase by nearly 6% year-on-year by the International Grains Council (IGC) in its latest Grain Market Report.
The report, released Jan. 11, showed that 2023-24 total grains production (wheat and coarse grains) “is set to be the largest on record (2.307 billion tonnes), with the 2% year-on-year increase tied mainly to a solid rebound in corn production.”
The IGC increased its forecast for corn output by 7 million tonnes from the previous month, with 2023-24 production now pegged at 1.230 billion tonnes, compared with 1.165 billion last year.
Wheat production is projected to decline by 2% (16 million tonnes) year-on-year, the IGC said, although it revised output higher by 1 million tonnes month-on-month.
While total grains production is forecast higher year-on-year, consumption also is projected to increase, causing a further decrease in global carryover stocks. Consumption was revised higher by 6 million tonnes to 2.314 billion tonnes, a nearly 2% increase compared with 2022-23.
Carryover stocks were revised higher by 5 million tonnes month-on-month, but the overall total grains carryover total for the 2023-24 marketing year is expected to drop for the seventh straight year to 590 million tonnes, down from the most recent peak of 658 million tonnes in 2016-17.
With a downgraded outlook in Brazil outweighing increases elsewhere, 2023-24 global soybean production is forecast 3 million tonnes lower month-on-month, the IGC said. However, at 392 million tonnes, it would be 6% higher than last year’s output.
Owing to a scaling back of expectations for leading Asian producers, 2023-24 world rice output is forecast 10 million tonnes lower month-on-month, with the net drop in availabilities due to reduced figures for consumption and stocks.
The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Price Index fell by 6% from the previous month as declines were seen in all grains and oilseed except for rice, which increased by nearly 8%. The index, which now stands at 247, is 19% lower year-on-year, reflecting a significant decline in corn, wheat and soybean prices.
Source: World Grain