Posted on January, 31, 2024 at 08:31 am
Drought-induced crop failure leads to Emergency in conflict-affected north
Key Messages
Although the meher harvest is improving access to food for much of the population, Ethiopia remains among FEWS NET’s countries of highest concern amid drought in the conflict-affected north, heightened levels of active conflict in Amhara and Oromia regions, the aftermath of drought and floods in the south and southeast, and persistently poor economic conditions. Levels of acute food insecurity are most severe in the northern and southern regions. Areas of increasing concern include Tigray and northeastern Amhara, where the meher harvest failed due to drought and insecurity is restricting household income from labor migration that is typically critical for purchasing food. Additionally, the scale and frequency of planned food assistance is below the level of need.
Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes, which are already occurring in parts of eastern, southern, and central Tigray, are expected to become more widespread across Tigray from February to May. Households that did not harvest and have limited access to social support and humanitarian food assistance likely face Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). Social support – or communal sharing of food with worst-off households – has been critical to preventing more extreme outcomes marked by high levels of mortality; however, there are reports of hunger-related deaths. The importance of this support, along with the gradual increase in food assistance, is now rising in areas where crops failed. However, if social support and the gradual scale up of humanitarian food assistance does not continue at least at current levels and this leads to household coping capacity being exhausted more rapidly than currently projected, then more severe outcomes than currently mapped could occur.
The pastoral south and southeast remains of high concern, but projections of modest improvements in access to food and income are materializing following two consecutive rainy seasons in early and late 2023. Heavy rain began to subside in December, permitting floodwaters to recede and giving way to favorable pasture and water availability. Livestock births from the deyr/hageya reproduction cycle are providing food and income, and more households – including internally displaced persons – have planted off-season crops than previously anticipated. Nevertheless, many households have not recovered their livestock herds and had a limited ability to cultivate. As such, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is expected to persist in Afder, Liban, Dawa, and parts of Shebelle and Borena zones until the next milking cycle in April/May. However, the risk of more severe outcomes, which FEWS NET has been monitoring since 2022, has now likely been alleviated.
Source: ReliefWeb