Posted on March, 15, 2024 at 08:26 am
The International Grains Council (IGC) on Thursday forecast a record global grain crop in the 2024/25 season, reinforcing concerns about a global glut.
The inter-governmental body, issuing its first full set of supply and demand projections for the 2024/25 season, saw global grains production rising to a record 2.332 billion metric tons from the prior season's 2.304 billion.
Global grains consumption was seen rising to 2.331 billion from the prior season's 2.306 billion, while stocks at the end of the season were seen at 601 million tons, up from 599 million a year earlier.
"Led by gains in feed uptake, consumption is assumed higher, also at a fresh peak. Although the outlook is finely balanced, ending stocks are tentatively seen edging upwards," the IGC said in a monthly report.
The IGC saw global corn (maize) production rising to 1.233 billion metric tons in 2024/25, up from the prior season's 1.227 billion, with larger crops in Brazil (121.5 million vs 115.4 million) and China (291 million vs 288.8 million) partially offset by a decline in the U.S. (382 million vs 389.7 million).
Global wheat production in 2024/25 was forecast to rise to 799 million tons from 789 million in 2023/24, with larger crops seen in Australia (30.1 million vs 26 million) and Argentina (18 million vs 15.9 million).
Prices of grains such as wheat and corn have been falling during the last few months with supplies becoming increasingly abundant, helping to drive down global food prices.
The drop in prices has helped trigger a wave of farmer protests, particularly in Europe.
The IGC also forecast that global soybean production would rise in 2024/25 to 413 million tons, up from 390 million in the prior season.
"Tentative (soybean) projections for 2024/25 point to a larger global harvest, with record utilisation and further inventory accumulation anticipated," the IGC said.
Source: XM