Posted on April, 2, 2024 at 08:54 am
Most countries in the region reached the typical peak of the lean season period in February, which was characterized by depleted harvested food stocks, above-average food prices, and reduced agricultural labor opportunities and income. Limited access to income for market food purchases drives Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in typical deficit production areas of southern Zimbabwe, Malawi, Madagascar, eastern and northern DRC, and southern and central Mozambique. However, Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are present in southern Madagascar and Cabo Delgado, Mozambique, where ongoing humanitarian food assistance supports at least 25 percent of households with access to 25 percent of their kilocalories. However, increasing insecurity and the resurgence of attacks in Cabo Delgado and eastern DRC continue to drive Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in these areas. However, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are present in the central and northern parts of most countries in the region, driven by access to income for food purchases and the availability of stocks from the previous harvest.
February was characterized by record dryness and high temperatures, resulting in severe moisture stress, reduced harvest potential, and crop failure for food and some cash crops, particularly in Zimbabwe, southern and central Mozambique, and southern Malawi. Significantly below-average harvests are expected across the region, which is expected to negatively impact food access, harvesting labor, and crop sales through the post-harvest period. The below-average El Niño induced rainfall also limited pasture regeneration and impacted water availability for animals in some parts of the region. Typically, drier parts of the region were the most affected, with water and pasture availability likely to decline earlier than normal during the upcoming dry season in the winter months. This is expected to impact livestock body conditions and prices negatively. Poor water availability is also expected to affect some livelihoods negatively, and less income from activities such as vegetable production, brick making, construction, and other coping strategies in the post-harvest period.
The Southern Africa region is expected to have a supply gap for staple cereals following the expected below-average harvest. The combined maize exports from South Africa and Tanzania are unlikely to meet the regional demand, and some countries will likely have to source grain from East Africa (Uganda) and South America to fill supply gaps due to below-average regional grain supply. There are increasing reports that some households with stocks are limiting grain deliveries to markets ahead of the poor harvest to maximize stocks for the upcoming consumption year. In Malawi and Zimbabwe, there are ongoing informal imports of maize grain from neighboring countries as households seek to improve their food stocks.
At the height of the lean season period in February, maize grain prices are seasonally high and higher than the five-year average in Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Mozambique. Grain prices are likely to drop seasonally during the harvest, albeit marginally, starting in April due to the expected poor harvests and continued limited market supply. Domestic grain prices are expected to remain atypically high in the post-harvest period as markets increasingly depend on imported supplies. Food inflation is expected to accelerate resulting in lower than normal household purchasing power. Poor macroeconomic conditions associated with acceleration in monthly inflation and depreciating exchange rates, such as in Malawi and Zimbabwe, may exacerbate the protracted food shortages and limit access to other basic non-food items.
Source: ReliefWeb