Posted on May, 17, 2024 at 09:08 am
The USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released on May 10 projected strong production levels in 2024 and a likely increase in corn and soybean ending stocks by the end of the 2024-25 marketing year. U.S. wheat stocks are also expected to increase in the coming year.
From a grain marketing standpoint, the initial reaction to the WASDE report was positive for corn and soybeans in the short term; however, USDA is projecting that the national average grain prices for corn, soybeans, and wheat will all decline by the conclusion of the 2024-25 marketing year, compared to 2023-24 price levels.
Based on the May 10 USDA WASDE Report, the projected corn ending stocks for the 2023-24 marketing year are estimated at 2.022 billion bushels, which is a decrease of 100 million bushels from the April report, due to expected increases in both corn exports and corn used for ethanol production of 50 million bushels each. The anticipated 2023-24 corn ending stocks still represent a substantial increase from 1.36 billion bushels in 2022-23, 1.38 billion bushels in 2021-22 and 1.23 billion bushels in 2020-21. USDA is projecting that total U.S. corn usage for 2023-2024 at just over 14.7 billion bushels for livestock feed, ethanol, exports, etc., which is an increase of 7.2% or 1 billion bushels compared to the 2022-23 usage level. The higher estimated corn usage was mainly due to increases in the estimated amount of corn used for feed, ethanol production, and exports in 2023-24, compared to a year earlier. The 2023-24 corn stock-to-use ratio is now estimated at 13.7%, up from 9.9% in 2022-23 and 9.2% in 2021-22.
The May WASDE Report also offered an initial USDA estimate for corn carryover levels in the 2024-25 marketing year, which ends on Aug. 31, 2025. The corn ending stocks were estimated at 2.1 billion bushels, which would be an increase of about 100 million bushels compared to the end of the 2023-24 marketing year. The 2024-25 stocks-to-use ratio is expected to increase to 14.2%. The projected 2024-25 carryout level would be the highest since the end of the 2016-17 and the ending stocks were near the average grain-trade estimates. USDA is estimating the total corn supply for 2024-25 at 16.9 billion bushels and the total corn usage for the year at 14.8 billion bushels. USDA is forecasting a slight increase in corn usage for livestock feed and higher U.S. corn export levels, as well as stable corn usage for ethanol production in 2024-25.
USDA is estimating total U.S. corn production in 2024 at 14.86 billion bushels, which would be down 3.1% from the record 2023 U.S. corn production of 15.34 billion bushels. The USDA Report expects an estimated 90 million acres of corn to be planted in the U.S. in 2024, which compares to 94.6 million acres in 2023 and 88.2 million acres in 2022. USDA is projecting the average U.S. corn yield at 181 bushels per acre in 2024, which is up from the record average yield of 177.3 bushels per acre in 2023, as well as the 2022 yield of 173.4 bushels per acre. The WASDE corn yield estimate is very close to the trend line corn yield forecast at the USDA Ag Outlook Conference in February this year. Corn planting progress in 2024 has been running near normal in many areas of the central and northern Corn Belt of the U.S., but is behind normal in some areas of the eastern Corn Belt.
As of May 10, USDA is estimating the average U.S “on-farm” corn price for the 2023-24 marketing at $4.65 per bushel, which was down $.05 per bushel from the April estimate. The current USDA projected corn price compares to recent final national average prices of $6.54 per bushel for 2022-23, $6.00 per bushel for 2021-22, $4.53 per bushel for 2020-21, and $3.56 per bushel for 2019-20. USDA also released the first estimated average corn price for the 2024-25 marketing year at $4.40 per bushel, which would be $2.14 per bushel lower than the final 2022-23 national average price, which represents a decline of 33% in two years.
Based on the May 10 WASDE Report, the projected soybean ending stocks for 2023-24 are estimated at 340 million bushels, which is the same as the April estimate and was close to the average grain trade estimates. The projected 2023-24 soybean ending stocks have widened a bit compared to other recent soybean carryover levels of 264 million bushels in 2022-23, 274 million bushels in 2021-22, and 257 million bushels in 2020-21. The projected ending stocks are still well below 525 million bushels in 2019-20 and 909 million bushels in 2018-19.
Total soybean usage for 2023-24 is estimated to be just over 4.11 billion bushels, which is down slightly from the total usage of 4.30 billion bushels in 2022-23. Soybean export levels for 2023-24 are projected to decrease by 292 million bushels compared to a year earlier. USDA projected a slight increase in bushels used for soybean processing in the U.S for 2023-24 compared to crush levels a year earlier. Some analysts feel that domestic soybean demand may increase in the next few years with several new or expanded soybean processing plants scheduled to come on board, focusing on the production of renewable diesel.
The May WASDE report projects soybean ending stocks to increase by 105 million bushels to 445 million bushels by the end of the 2024-25 marketing year. USDA is estimating the total U.S. soybean supply to increase by 285 million bushels in 2024-25; while the total soybean usage is expected to increase by 246 million bushels compared to levels for 2023-24. The projected ending stocks-to-use ratio for 2024-25 is estimated at 10.2%, which compares to 8.2% in 2023-24 and 6.1% in 2022-23.
Total U.S. soybean production in 2024 is estimated at 4.45 billion bushels, which would be an increase from the estimated U.S. soybean production of 4.16 billion bushels in 2023 and 4.27 billion bushels in 2022. Interestingly, a year ago in May, USDA projected the 2023 U.S. soybean production at 4.51 billion bushels and the actual 2023 production was 345 million bushels less. Planted soybean acres for 2024 are projected at 86.5 million acres, which is up from 83.6 million acres in 2023, but lower than 87.5 million acres in 2021. USDA is estimating a national average soybean yield of 52 bushels per acre in 2024, which compares to 50.6 bushels per acre in 2023 and 49.6 bushels per acre in 2022. The record U.S. soybean yield was 52.1 bushels per acre in 2016.
USDA is estimating the U.S “on-farm” soybean average price at $11.20 per bushel for the 2024-25 marketing year, which runs from Sept. 1, 2024, to Aug. 31, 2025. The preliminary price estimate for the 2024-25 marketing year would represent a 21% decline or $3.00 per bushel from the market year average price on May 1 two years ago. The projected final market year average price for 2023-24 is $12.55 per bushel soybean price, which compares to final average soybean prices of $14.20 per bushel in 2022-23, $13.30 per bushel for 2021-22, and $10.80 per bushel for 2020-21, and $8.57 per bushel for 2019-20. The average soybean prices for 2024-25 will likely be highly dependent on 2024 soybean production in the U.S. and South America, as well as increases in soybean crush levels and the amount of U.S. soybean exports to China and other countries.
The May 10 WASDE Report projected U.S. wheat ending stocks to increase by 78 million bushels to 766 million bushels by the end of the 2024-25 marketing year on May 31, 2025. This compares to estimated ending stocks of 688 million bushels for 2023-24 and 570 million bushels in 2022-23. Wheat demand in 2024-25 is projected to increase slightly from the current year demand up to 1.9 billion bushels, with the increase mainly due to higher export estimates. Wheat acreage in 2024 is expected to decrease to 47.5 million acres; however, total U.S. wheat production is expected to increase slightly in 2024 to 1.86 billion bushels. Wheat acreage and production numbers could be adjusted in coming months, depending on planting conditions in the primary spring wheat production region. USDA is projecting the average “on-farm” wheat price at $6.00 per bushel for 2024-25 and $7.10 per bushel for 2023-24, which compares to other recent final national average price of $8.83 in 2022-23, $7.63 per bushel in 2021-22 and $5.05 per bushel in 2020-21.
Source: AG-Week