Traders union cuts Ukraine 2024 grain, oilseed crop forecast to 74.6 mln T

Ukrainian grain traders union UGA revised down on Monday its forecast for Ukraine's 2024 combined grain and oilseed harvest to 74.6 million metric tons from the previous outlook of 76.1 million tons.

The UGA said in a statement the harvest could include 25.5 million tons of corn, 19.1 million tons of wheat, 4.6 million tons of barley, 13.7 million tons of sunseed, 5.5 million tons of soybeans and 4.3 million tons of rapeseed.

Ukraine is a major global grain and oilseed grower and exporter, but its harvests have declined since the Russian invasion in February 2022.

The agriculture ministry has said Ukraine lost about 30% of the country's total potential of the agricultural sector and almost 20% of agricultural land was occupied.

Ukraine had a record grain and oilseed harvest of about 107 million tons in 2021 before the invasion, including 85 million tons of various grains and 16.4 million tons of sunseed.

The wheat harvest totalled 32.7 million tons while corn output reached almost 42 million tons.

"The potential decline in harvest in the new season is caused by both a reduction in sown areas... and a somewhat dry period in May this year in a number of regions in the East and South of the country," UGA said.

UGA said that despite a smaller forecast, overall exports could stay at almost the same level at 43.5 million tons. UGA previously saw the exports at 43.7 million tons.

The union said the 2024/25 July-June exports might include 20.5 million tons of corn, 13 million tons of wheat, 3.4 million tons of rapeseed and 4 million tons of soybean.

UKRAINE 2024/25 HARVEST, EXPORT OUTLOOK

Source: UGA

Source: XM