Posted on June, 7, 2024 at 09:21 am
Australia has been forecast to produce 29.1 million t of wheat, 11.5 million t of barley and 5.4 million t of canola from the winter crop now being sown, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).
The figures have been released in the ABARES June Australian Crop Report, which revealed the national forecaster’s initial estimates by commodity and state of production.
Area planted to winter crops in Australia was forecast to remain historically high in 2024 - 25, rising slightly to 23.6 million ha., 6% above the 10-year average to 2023 - 24.
A forecasted increase in area planted to winter crops in Queensland and New South Wales was likely to more than offset a fall in area in Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia.
Area planted to wheat was forecast to rise by 3% y/y to 12.7 million ha. in 2024 - 25, and barley area at 4.3 million ha. was seen as being up 3%, mostly reflecting an increase in Qld and northern NSW area after a dry season in 2023.
The longer planting window for cereals was also expected to result in some late plantings following upcoming forecast rainfall events.
Area planted to canola was forecast to fall 9% to 3.2 million ha., with lower relative expected returns have also seen some substitution towards other crops, including wheat, barley and pulses.
The reduction in (canola) area reflects a less favourable start to the season in some major cropping regions.
Above-average winter-crop production was expected, with most regions showing an increased likelihood of receiving average to above-average winter rainfall.
Yields are forecast to be above average in Qld, NSW and Vic which was likely to more than offset average to below average yields in South Australia and Western Australia.
Wheat production was forecast to increase by 12% to 29.1 million t in 2024 - 25, 10% above the 10-year average to 2023 - 24.
Barley production was forecast to increase by 7% to 11.5 million t in 2024 - 25, 2% above the 10-year average, while canola production was forecast to fall by 5% to 5.4 million t, 21% above the 10-year average.
Source: Dry Bulk