Posted on June, 28, 2024 at 09:37 am
Global wheat supplies are expected to tighten because of Russian production challenges.
CoBank grains and oilseeds economist Tanner Ehmke says weather problems are going to limit the size of this year’s crop.
“The estimates on the Russian wheat crop are all down across the board to varying degrees. USDA has the Russian wheat crop at 83 million tons, other private estimates in Russia have it around 80 (million) or even lower than that. So that begs the question of ‘where do we go from here?”
He tells Brownfield the smaller Russian wheat crop should spark extreme market volatility once harvest pressure subsides.
“On prices, on basis, and in the spreads. So that’s one thing that we’re cautioning, don’t let the drop in wheat prices of late lull you into a period of complacency. Volatility is still in the offing.”
Ehmke says volatility in wheat could spill over into corn and soybeans, but weather in the U.S. will be the primary driver for those markets.
Source: Brownfield