West Africa Key Message Update May 2024: Persisting food insecurity in conflict-affected areas and in Nigeria, where inflation is at a nearly 30-year high

• Rainfall conditions in May were not favorable to the expansion of planting in the Sudanian zones of the Sahel. Agricultural activities were dominated by soil preparation and manure spreading in the fields. With the improvement in rainfall conditions in June, planting is set to expand in the Sahel. On the pastoral front, water is beginning to accumulate in ponds and plant cover is gradually regenerating as the rainy season sets in. However, insecurity continues to limit access to cropland and affect livestock movements in certain areas. Heavy concentrations of livestock are reported in Timbuktu and Segou (Mali), Agadez, Tahoua, and Tillabéry (Niger), and Gorgol and Guidimaka (Mauritania).
• The security crisis persists in the Sahel and continues to lead to population movements, although returns of displaced people are increasingly being recorded in some places. In May 2024, over 3.1 million displaced people were registered in the central Sahel and Liptako-Gourma, 67 percent of which are in Burkina Faso, and over 6 million displaced people were recorded in the Lake Chad basin, 74 percent of which are in Nigeria (IOM). Livelihoods, market-related activities, trade, transhumance movements and access to basic social services are severely disrupted in these areas. The security crisis is increasingly spreading to coastal countries (Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, and Benin), with some 116,713 displaced persons estimated in May 2024 (IOM).
• Grain prices were stable or rising from April to May 2024 as household stocks were depleted and demand increased. Prices remained well above their five-year average due to factors such as low availability, limited stock replenishment, insecurity, and persistent cross-border restrictions. Prices were also higher than the previous year in several places, notably Niger due to production shortfalls and reduced supply, parts of Chad due to higher transport costs and strong demand, and the Far North of Cameroon due to insecurity-related crop failures and strong cross-border demand. In Nigeria, poor macroeconomic conditions – marked by the highest inflation in almost 30 years, the depreciation of the naira, and high fuel prices – continue to drive soaring prices. Prices will peak in the next two to three months, corresponding to the lean season, and will remain above average throughout the region.
• The majority of areas will continue to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes until September 2024. In areas affected by civil unrest, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persisted in May in Kossi, Sourou, Yatenga, Séno, Sanmatenga, northern Bam, northern Namentenga, Komondjari, Gourma Tapoa, and Kompienga provinces in Burkina Faso, the northern and western regions of Tahoua and Tillabéry in Niger, Kanem, Bar el Gazel, Borkou, Tibesti, Ennedi East and West, Wadi Fira, Ouaddaî, and Sila regions in Chad, the south of the Gao region in Mali, Borno State and parts of Yobé, Sokoto, Zamfara, Katsina, Kaduna, and Plateau in Nigeria, and the Far North of Cameroon. From June to September, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will extend to other provinces in Burkina Faso (Bam, Gnagna, Koulpelogo), the Hadjer Lamis Region in Chad, Niger, and other LGAs in the above-mentioned states in Nigeria. In the Northwest and Southwest regions of Cameroon, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will improve slightly from June/July onwards with new harvests which will enable households to move into Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes.
• Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes currently observed in the provinces of Lorum, Soum, Oudalan, and Yagha in Burkina Faso, in Ménaka in Mali, and in inaccessible LGAs in the northeastern states of Nigeria (Abadam, Guzamala, Marte, Bama) will persist until September due to limited household food stocks and limited access to markets and humanitarian aid. From June onwards, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) levels of food insecurity will extend to the Séno Province, currently in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), in the Sahel Region of Burkina Faso. These results will worsen during the lean season, with an expansion of areas in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) across the north of the country, and an increase in populations in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in the most inaccessible areas, as well as in Ménaka in Mali.

Source: Relief Web