Pressure from global warming is unlikely to change China's policy of maximizing domestic grain production, a prominent climate scientist said, but the country is starting to look at ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from farming.
Water scarcity and extreme weather related to global warming could cut the country's agricultural production capacity by 5 to 10 percent by 2030 if adaptive steps are not taken, according to estimates included in China's Climate Change Assessment.
But Lin Erda, a climate expert at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences who advises the government, said officials were confident their grain goals would not be badly dented.
"The Ministry of Agriculture believes it can find ways to offset that and maintain output levels," Lin told Reuters.
"China can't afford to give up its grains sufficiency goals. We're such a big country -- where can we buy from?
Even if overall output levels are maintained, China's patterns of grain production could change along with shifting water availability and temperatures.
"What we will see, for example with corn, is the center of production shifting to areas that were previously more on the edges," Lin said.
Corn growing could move south and west from its traditional center in China's Northeast, to areas nearer the Yellow River, he said.
China targets growing 95 percent of the grains it consumes, but the task is complicated by a shrinking supply of arable land, a lack of clean water and rapidly growing domestic consumption.
The country has had bumper grain harvests since 2004. This summer's grain harvest could rise for the fourth year in a row, the Agricultural Ministry said on Monday while sounding a note of caution for full-year output.
Efforts to slow the encroachment of cities and industrial development to surrounding farmland are starting to take effect, Lin said.
MAKING CREDITS
Climate change can also create an opportunity for China's agricultural sector, since China is one of the largest destinations for financing of greenhouse gas reduction projects.
The Ministry of Agriculture is investigating ways to reduce rural emissions, while raising farmers' incomes by attracting international investment for agriculture emissions reduction projects.
Manure, fertilizer, burning of agricultural waste and tilling can all release gases that contribute to global warming.
Promising areas include growing forests to absorb carbon, developing biogas from manure and agricultural waste for use in villages, and improving fertilizing and irrigation methods.
Many local officials are eager to develop revenue-generating emissions reduction projects, although local projects have often been too small and procedures too complicated for them to be certified under the carbon development mechanism, or CDM, scheme, officials involved in vetting projects say.
A pilot project in Xinjiang, between international NGO Environmental Defense and the Xinjiang Environmental Protection Agency, is aggregating some such projects to sell into an alternative market for voluntary emission reductions.
"I was surprised by the enthusiasm of provincial and county officials and their willingness to make the investment and take the risk. They don't need to be convinced of the potential," said Zach Willey, senior economist of Environmental Defense and a co-author of a manual on land use and farming practices that could reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
