Posted on July, 21, 2024 at 09:13 pm
Grain prices were mixed but mostly higher to close out the week. Wheat prices earned the biggest bounce after dry weather in several key production countries sparked a round of short-covering and technical buying. The ensuing spillover strength helped corn find modest gains, while soybean prices incurred modest losses on Friday.
Most of the Corn Belt will see at least some measurable moisture between Saturday and Tuesday, but very few fields will gather more than 0.5” during this time, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Later on, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts wetter-than-normal conditions for the eastern Corn Belt and Great Lakes region between July 26 and August 1, with seasonally warm weather likely for most of the central U.S.
On Wall St., the Dow stumbled another 413 points lower in afternoon trading to 40,251 in what some experts say is a “long overdue rotation.” Energy futures also shifted noticeably lower, with crude oil down 3.25% this afternoon to $80 per barrel amid lingering demand questions. Diesel and gasoline each declined around 2.5% lower. The U.S. Dollar firmed moderately.
On Thursday, commodity funds were net buyers of soybeans (+3,000), soymeal (+3,000) and soyoil (+2,000) contracts but were net sellers of corn (-6,500). Funds were roughly even when trading CBOT wheat contracts yesterday.
Corn prices tested bigger gains earlier on Friday but ultimately settled fractionally higher on a round of technical buying partly spurred by spillover support from wheat. September futures inched 0.25 cents higher to $3.9150, with December futures up half a penny to $4.0550.
Corn basis bids eased a penny lower at an Ohio elevator while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Friday.
The 2024 Farm Progress show is rapidly approaching – just five more weeks! The show features, among many other things, 360 acres of test plots. What else is in store? Farm broadcaster Mike Pearson takes a closer look in today’s edition of Farm Progress America – click here to listen.
Former USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue dutifully served under the first Trump Administration but says he has no plans to do so again if Trump is elected this November. But Perdue did offer that he would do consulting on ag policy if asked. Farm Progress policy editor Joshua Baethge has more details about what Perdue has been up to – click here to learn more.
If you haven’t been to FarmFutures.com in a bit, our Friday feature “7 ag stories you can’t miss” is one easy way to quickly catch up on the industry’s top headlines. The latest edition looks at when to pull the trigger on corn fungicides, investigating whether solar panels and farms can coexist and more. Click here to get started.
Corn settlements on Thursday were for 269,910 contracts.
Soybean prices entered Friday’s session with moderate gains, but a gradual shift to a pattern of technical selling led to modest losses today. August futures dropped 2.5 cents to $10.96, with September futures down 4.5 cents to $10.3625.
The rest of the soy complex was lightly mixed today. August soymeal futures faced fractional cuts, while August soyoil futures found fractional gains.
Soybean basis bids moved 3 cents higher at an Iowa river terminal while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Friday.
Private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 105,000 metric tons of soymeal for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/25 marketing year, which begins October 1.
Brazil’s Safras & Mercado estimates that the country’s 2025 soybean production will climb to 6.302 billion bushels – by far, the largest volume on record, if realized. Brazilian soybean exports are expected to increase to 3.932 billion bushels next year, and the country’s soybean crush is expected to reach 2.039 billion bushels.
Meantime, Brazil’s 2024/25 planting season is still two months away, but multiple entities are already expecting to see its footprint increase to 117 million acres, which is 2.9% above last season’s area. And since 2000, year-over-year growth in Brazilian soybean plantings has averaged 5.4%, according to Matthew Kruse, president of Commstock Investments. Kruse takes a closer look at the situation in today’s Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here to learn more.
Soybean settlements on Thursday were for 200,806 contracts.
Wheat prices benefited from some short-covering and technical buying following overly dry weather in parts of the U.S. Plains, Canada and Russia, and as France’s current crop continues to face diminishing quality. September Chicago SRW futures gained 9.5 cents to $5.4475, September Kansas City HRW futures rose 10 cents to $5.7275, and September MGEX spring wheat futures climbed 14.75 cents to $6.1525.
In Russia, spring frosts gave way to heatwaves later in the season, leaving the country’s wheat production potential at 3.057 billion bushels in 2024, according to the latest estimates from the IKAR consultancy. IKAR also estimates Russia’s wheat exports to reach 1.617 billion bushels this season. Russia is the world’s No. 1 wheat exporter.
France’s soft wheat crop quality ratings are degrading quickly, moving from 57% in good-to-excellent condition in the prior week down to 52% through July 15, per its FranceAgriMer farm office. Heavy rains earlier in the season are largely to blame. Harvest progress has reached 14%, versus the prior five-year average of 43%. France is Europe’s top grain producer.
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CBOT wheat settlements on Thursday were for 77,307 contracts.
Source: Farm Progress