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The widespread negative impacts of the 2023/24 El Niño-induced drought are expected to drive and expand area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes from June 2024 to January 2025 in Zimbabwe, southern Mozambique, southern Malawi, southern Zambia, and southern Angola. In parts of southern Madagascar, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely to emerge by October with Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes expected in areas with significant levels of humanitarian food assistance. Additionally, conflict in DRC and northern Mozambique continues to limit household access to normal livelihoods, driving Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes with Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes in areas of northern Mozambique where humanitarian assistance regularly occurs. An atypically early start of the 2024/25 lean season is expected, and needs will likely progressively expand through January 2025 in the affected areas across the region: millions of people are expected to rely on social support and humanitarian assistance to access food.
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Following below-average harvests, and the atypically early depletion of stocks in July/August, poor households are expected to atypically increase engagement in off-farm livelihood activities, such as petty trade, self-employment, off-farm labor, and temporary migration of household members to maximize income for food purchases. However, increased competition, reduced labor demand, and poor liquidity among households are expected to contribute to below-average income. Purchasing power is expected to remain constrained following below-average incomes and the expected high food (grain) prices. Food consumption deficits will likely expand, prompting households to employ crisis coping strategies earlier than normal to meet their minimum food needs.
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Market supply for maize, small grains, pulses, and tubers from the 2023/24 harvest is generally below average for most countries (except for DRC), with no to significantly below average supplies in areas most impacted by drought (like in Zimbabwe). Following the poor harvests, market supplies are expected to progressively deplete from the post-harvest period through January 2025. In countries such as Mozambique, Malawi, and southern Madagascar, formal and informal traders are moving crop produce from surplus to deficit-producing areas, but the supplies will not meet the high demand. Prices of key commodities, such as maize grain, are generally above both last year and the average across the region. Maize grain prices are expected to increase and peak in early 2025 at the height of the lean season. Following significantly below-average and failed harvests in Zimbabwe, maize grain prices did not seasonally decline in the post-harvest period, exacerbating access challenges in both typical surplus- and deficit-producing areas.
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Following the prolonged dry period, water and pasture for livestock are expected to deteriorate critically, increasing chances of poor livestock conditions, livestock diseases, low incomes from sales, and risk of livestock deaths before the onset of rains from October/November. However, the forecasted average to above-average 2024/25 rainfall season is expected to recharge dams, streams, and rivers, regenerate pastures, and ultimately improve livestock conditions at least from October/November, although incomes from sales may remain low due to poor liquidity among households. The forecasted La Niña in the coming 2024/25 rainfall season across the region is expected to improve the availability of income from seasonal agricultural labor opportunities (such as land preparation, planting, and weeding) through January 2025. However, income and in-kind payments are expected to remain below average following the reduced capacity of middle and better-off households to pay wages to the poorer households they employ.
Outlook by country
Democratic Republic of Congo
Key messages
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Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected from June 2024 to January 2025, with populations in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in the northeast and central-east areas. These outcomes stem from clashes between the M23 rebellion and other armed groups against the Armed Forces of the DRC (FARDC), which have caused the displacement of approximately 7.3 million people across the country (OCHA). The June 2024 and January 2025 harvests are expected to be significantly below average due to the conflict and are not anticipated to substantially improve food availability for poor households. Some displaced households in the northeast, who were unable to cultivate and are struggling to recover their livelihoods, are expected to be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4).
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The areas of greatest concern with the most intense conflicts remain in the provinces of Ituri, North Kivu, and South Kivu in the northeast of the country. In these provinces, the territories of Djugu (Ituri), Kalehe (South Kivu), and Rutshuru, Masisi, and Lubero (North Kivu) remain hotspots of tension.
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Although the seasonal floods of October and November 2024 are not expected to reach the historic levels observed over the past two years, according to rainfall forecasts, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are anticipated in areas most susceptible to flooding, particularly the riverine areas along the Congo River and the shores of Lake Tanganyika.
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FEWS NET estimates that between 14.0 and 14.9 million people will be in need of urgent humanitarian assistance during the Season 2 lean season from October to December 2024. However, as in recent years, the total needs remain higher than the projected levels of assistance. The anticipated assistance during the projection period covers only a small proportion of the population in the areas most affected by conflicts and floods.
For more information, including events that would change the most likely scenario, see the DRC Food Security Outlook from June 2024 to January 2025
Madagascar
Key messages
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Across the Grand South and Grand Southeast, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to prevail between June and September, when needs remain seasonally low. Food and cash crop production is expected to be below average this season throughout the Grand South, the Grand Southeast, and in parts of northern and eastern Madagascar due to weather shocks, such as erratic rainfall in the south, the passage of cyclones in the north and east, and higher instances of pests. Harvests are, however, likely to be better than in previous drought years, supporting improved outcomes during the post-harvest period.
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Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are expected starting in October with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) likely to emerge in parts of the Grand South where lower levels of humanitarian food assistance are expected. As stocks deplete, households will become progressively reliant on markets to meet their food needs, albeit amid higher-than-normal prices and below-average incomes. An estimated 1 to 1.5 million people will need assistance through January. Humanitarian food assistance is expected to close food consumption gaps and protect livelihoods in most areas of concern, with 280,000 households targeted to receive half rations throughout the lean season in the Grand South and Grand Southeast.
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Areas of highest concern are Bekily, Beloha, and Tsihombe where assistance levels will be unable to mitigate worse outcomes with the onset of the lean season. Other areas of the Grand South, including Ampanihy, Amboasary, and Ambovombe, are still likely to have populations in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) despite assistance mitigating outcomes to Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) in these areas.
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The forecasted average start of rainfall for the next agricultural season will support the continued recovery of crop and livestock production. However, cropped area across the Grand South and in parts of the Grand Southeast and northern regions is likely to be constrained due to middle and better-off households’ reduced capacity to purchase inputs and demand labor in the wake of multiple shocks in recent years, in turn limiting income-generating opportunities for poorer households.
For more information, including events that would change the most likely scenario, see the Madagascar Food Security Outlook from June 2024 to January 2025
Malawi
Key messages
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From June to September 2024, districts in southern Malawi are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. These conditions are driven by a significant reduction in food and cash crop production due to severe dry spells, reduced access to income, and above-average prices of food and basic non-food commodities. Most households in the south have not yet recovered from the impacts of Tropical Cyclone Freddy in 2023.
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From October 2024 to January 2025, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will persist in southern Malawi districts as the lean season begins toward the end of the year and households exhaust their food stocks. Four districts in central Malawi – Lilongwe, Mchinji, Nkhotakota, and Salima – will also experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Additionally, cities and towns with below-average income, limited employment opportunities, and high food prices, specifically Blantyre, Zomba, Lilongwe, and Mzuzu, are likely to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
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In the June 2024 to January 2025 period, the areas of the highest concern are in southern Malawi, particularly in Nsanje district in the Lower Shire livelihood zone. The district received extremely below-average rainfall, leading to significant reductions in crop production levels. A FEWS NET assessment in April 2024 indicated that 44 percent of households already had no own-produced food at harvest time, while food prices were more than double compared to same time last year’s average and income-earning opportunities were below average.
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FEWS NET is awaiting up-to-date information on planned and funded humanitarian food assistance. Even though the government made an El Niño response appeal in April 2024, funding levels remain unknown, and response planning is awaiting IPC analysis results from the Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee. FEWS NET estimates that from June to September 2024, the number of people facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes — predominantly in southern Malawi — will range from 2 to 3 million and is likely to increase to 3 to 4 million from October 2024 to January 2025.
For more information, including events that would change the most likely scenario, see Malawi Food Security Outlook from June 2024 to January 2025
Mozambique
Key messages
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Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely to prevail from June to September 2024 in the El Niño-induced drought and conflict-affected areas of Mozambique due to poor harvests, limited income-earning opportunities, and failure to engage in normal livelihood activities. In addition to these shocks, above-average food prices will make it difficult for poor and very poor households to access food from the markets. In Cabo Delgado, several areas receiving regular humanitarian food assistance will likely be Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!).
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Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to expand between October 2024 and January 2025, mainly in the country's central region. The impact of the lean season, which includes the rapid depletion of below-average food stocks for families who were able to harvest some of their own crops, combined with above-average food prices and below-average income, will lead to an expansion of areas facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, particularly in areas affected by the El Niño-induced drought.
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The areas of highest concern include the semi-arid areas in the south and central parts of the country, which are remote areas with limited access to markets, and the conflict-affected areas in the southeast of Cabo Delgado, where insecurity is heightened.
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In May, the Food Security Cluster (FSC) partners provided food assistance to around 206,000 people in Cabo Delgado and Niassa, covering 40 percent of their monthly food needs. However, as of June, only 18 percent of the required resources for the planned humanitarian response had been secured. Limited funds forced WFP to reduce food assistance in several districts, and the worsening insecurity situation has led to the suspension of activities in Macomia Sede and Quissanga.
For more information, including events that would change the most likely scenario, see the Mozambique Food Security Outlook from June 2024 to January 2025
Zimbabwe
Key messages
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Area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to expand in Zimbabwe from June 2024 to January 2025. Following a historic dry spell at a critical period of crop development that resulted in a very poor harvest, millions of people are expected to rely on alternative sources of income, social support, and humanitarian assistance to access food during the atypically long 2024/25 lean season.
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Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will be widespread from October 2024 to January 2025. Although the start of the 2024/25 rainy season in late 2024 is forecast to be average and will likely support engagement in agricultural activity, humanitarian assistance needs will remain high in many areas of the country until the harvest in 2025 due to poor purchasing capacity resulting from limited income-earning opportunities and high food prices.
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The areas of highest concern include the communal smallholder livelihood zones in southern, eastern, western, and extreme northern typical deficit-producing areas. However, there is also concern for most of the typical high- and surplus-producing areas in the Mashonaland Provinces following a poor 2024 harvest, and for urban poor households with limited purchasing capacity.
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Humanitarian food assistance needs are expected to increase into early 2025, following a very early start to the 2024/25 lean season, and be significantly higher than last year and the five-year average. The government and the United Nations have released appeals for domestic and international support covering immediate, short, and long-term interventions.
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Due to limited access to water and pasture, livestock poverty deaths are expected to peak before the start of the 2024/25 rainy season in October 2024. However, the forecasted average rainfall in late 2024 will likely improve water and pasture availability and support improvements in livestock body conditions.
For more information, including events that would change the most likely scenario, see the Zimbabwe Food Security Outlook from June 2024 to January 2025.
Remotely monitored countries
Angola
Key Messages
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An estimated 1.0 to 1.5 million people in Angola will likely need humanitarian food assistance by January 2025, primarily in southeast Angola, which has experienced repeated droughts, particularly in the provinces Cunene, Cuando Cubango, Moxico, and parts of Namibe and Huila.
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Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely in southeastern Angola; the rest of the country will likely experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through January 2025 given the more favorable rainfall in these areas driving better harvest prospects and labor opportunities from land preparation, weeding, and planting.
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The start of the 2024/25 rainy season in October will drive increases in agricultural labor, providing income and improved purchasing capacity for some poor households, but entailing increased expenses by others.
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Successive shocks include drought and high inflation, with prices of staple foods and other goods increasing due to currency devaluation and reduced fuel subsidies.
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In the southeast, poor households primarily depend on food from own-production and some fishing, supplemented with market purchases of maize, rice, dry fish, and cooking oil. Poor households are expected to generate income for consumption by selling natural products (charcoal, firewood, sand, and stones) and locally-made alcoholic beverages.
For more information, including events that would change the most likely scenario, see the Angola Remote Monitoring Report from June 2024 to January 2025
Lesotho
Key messages
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Following an atypically early start to the lean season, 100,000 to 250,000 people are expected to be in need of humanitarian food assistance during the October to January period. Area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected through January 2025 in the southern districts, particularly Mafeteng, Mohale's Hoek, Qacha’s Nek, and Quthing, which were hardest hit by the El Niño-induced drought. Acute food insecurity in Lesotho is being driven by drought-related low harvests, high staple food prices, and below-average incomes. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected across the remainder of the country through January 2025
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Households are likely to deplete their stocks early due to the below-average harvest amid minimal off-farm casual labor opportunities. Harvests for most households are estimated to last about three months (until the end of July), after which households will rely on market food purchases to meet their food needs. Above-average prices for imported cereals from South Africa will also contribute to lower-than-normal household purchasing capacity.
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A normal start to the 2024/25 agricultural season is expected due to the forecasted timely onset of rainfall. Seasonal agricultural labor opportunities from land preparation and planting are expected to be normal. However, wage rates are likely to be below normal due to increased competition for labor opportunities as more poor households try to engage in casual labor activities to earn income for staple purchases, but in a context of lower-than-normal liquidity among the employing middle and better-off households.
