Positive influences supporting commodity import demand in a number of countries have been visible recently. But some signs suggest that restraints on extended growth in world seaborne dry bulk trade during the remainder of 2024 and into next year may become more prominent.
Envisaged strengthening of global economic activity this year and further ahead seems likely to be limited, providing only modest benefits for related industrial bulk commodity import demand. Declining inflation and a prospective downwards trend in interest rates in many countries is expected to gradually assist consumer and business confidence and spending patterns. But a large or rapid boost is not generally foreseen.
GRAIN & SOYA
After an upturn in the current trade year, prospects for grain trade in the 2024/25 year — starting this month for wheat, and October for corn and other coarse grains — point to a possibility that the positive trend may not continue. US Department of Agriculture estimates published last month show a 12mt (million tonnes) or 3% decrease to 434mt, following a 23mt rise to 446mt in the 2023/24 year.
A large downturn in European Union grain purchases on the international market in the next twelve months is one of the changes currently expected. Lower imports into Asian countries including China also seem to be a likely outcome. Yet these and some other importing area estimates are still tentative. Assumptions about summer 2024 domestic harvests and implications for imports may need modifying, because there is uncertainty about crop yields in harvests either not yet started or completed.
COAL
In the 2024 first five months China’s coal imports exhibited a sustained strong performance, rising by 13% compared with last year’s same period, to reach 205mt. Despite this boost, uncertainties persist about import demand in both China and several other major importing countries during the remainder of the year.
The latest end June quarterly forecast by analysts at the Australian Govern ment’s Department of Industry reflects doubts about trade prospects. Global trade in steam and coking coal — including some overland movements but mostly seaborne — is predicted to decline by 16mt or 1% in 2024 from last year’s 1,468mt total, to 1,452mt. While rising imports into India are envisaged, potential weakness elsewhere could prevent any further trade advance.
IRON ORE
Another increase in seaborne iron ore trade now seems more likely to be achieved, following the resumed growth seen in the previous twelve months. All the major importers are expected to buy additional volumes during 2024 as a whole.
Steel production data continues to show a subdued pattern unfolding, however. Based on World Steel Association figures, European Union crude steel output was flat during this year’s first five months, compared with last year’s same period at 56.1mt. China experienced a 1% decrease, to 438.6mt. Reductions were bigger in Japan, down by 2% to 35.7mt, and South Korea, by 6% to 26.4mt.
MINOR BULKS
The extensive minor bulks segment is becoming a more crucial supportive contributor to global dry bulk trade growth. One of the large elements is fertilizers, mainly consisting of potash, phosphates (rock and processed), sulphur and urea. Trade in this group evidently grew modestly in 2023 to around 190mt and a further increase is envisaged in the current year.
MINOR BULKS
About 12% of the world bulk carrier fleet is represented by Handysize vessels in the 10–39,999 deadweight tonnes category.
As shown by table 2, fleet growth in the segment remained stable in 2023 at just over 3%. This year’s expansion may be larger, because newbuilding deliveries are set to rise sharply by perhaps 30% from last year, while current signs suggest that scrapping will remain low. A growth rate of around 4% in 2024 could result.
