Posted on August, 8, 2024 at 10:17 am
Global soyabean futures have trended downwards recently, and pressure has at times filtered through to the wider oilseeds complex, including rapeseed. It’s therefore important to explore some of the key factors driving the price trend. In the short-term, improved US weather has benefitted the supply outlook, and longer-term lacklustre demand and plentiful supplies could weigh on prices further.
In the last couple of weeks, as the crop progresses through its key development stage, we have seen welcomed rain in the US easing concerns over soyabean yields which were initially under pressure from hot and dry conditions. On Monday, the USDA’s crop progress report showed a slight uptick (1 percentage point) in the proportion of the crop rated good or excellent compared to last week.
The weather forecast in the next seven days suggests cooler-than-normal temperature in the key soyabeans producing areas in the US. This is favourable to crop yield and could boost overall output.
Another bearish factor is concerns over demand from the biofuel industry. In the US, soyabean processors have come under pressure from the shift in demand by biofuel producers to cheaper alternatives such as used Chinese cooking oil.
The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported a 4.4% decline in soyabeans crushed in the US in June compared to May. This fell below market expectation, though is still historically high due to the expansion of plants and building of new facilities over recent years.
Recent concerns about weakening of the US economy and slowing economic growth in China are also important indicators to watch for consumer purchasing trends.
The forecast of a larger global soyabean crop this year has also been a key factor keeping prices lower. The USDA expects soyabean production by major exporters (incl. Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and the US) to reach 351.4 Mt in the 2024/25 marketing year, surpassing the previous five-year average of 306.9 Mt. Meanwhile, ending stocks are forecast to reach 76.3 Mt compared to the previous five-year average of 61.6 Mt.
Rapeseed futures have historically tracked movements in the global soyabean market. Therefore, as weather conditions in the US improve in the coming days, we could see some pressure weigh on rapeseed. Longer-term, heavy supplies will likely limit any price support too.
However, the current crisis in the Middle East is something to watch as it could affect crude oil production and lend some support to the vegetable oils market. Additionally, with lower rapeseed output from Europe and Australia, it could be that rapeseed extends its premium over soyabeans further.
Source: AHDB