East Africa - Food Security Outlook: Needs rise in East Africa, with Famine confirmed in part of Al Fasher, Sudan (June 2024 - January 2025 )

Key Messages

• In June, humanitarian needs rose in several parts of East Africa as the peak of the lean season approaches, driven by intensifying conflict, localized flooding, poor macroeconomic conditions, and the longstanding impacts of the 2020-2023 Horn of Africa drought. For only the fourth time globally, Famine (IPC Phase 5) has been confirmed with reasonable evidence, this time in in Zamzam camp for internally displaced persons (IDPs), and is likely ongoing in two additional camps in the besieged area of Al Fasher in North Darfur – Abu Shouk and Al Salam camps. Meanwhile, there is a risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in other parts of Sudan – including in Al Fasher locality of North Darfur, areas of Greater Darfur and South Kordofan hosting high concentrations of displaced persons, and parts of West Darfur and Khartoum – as well as in South Sudan. In northern Ethiopia, if current levels of food assistance and social support decline or are disrupted, more extreme outcomes could occur through August, ahead of the meher harvest. Otherwise, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) will likely be widespread through January 2025.
• In Sudan, Famine (IPC Phase 5) is confirmed to be currently ongoing in the Zamzam camp for internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the besieged locality of Al Fasher, North Darfur, based on reasonable evidence that the Famine thresholds were passed in June. It is possible Famine (IPC Phase 5) is also ongoing in Abu Shouk and Al Salam IDP camps, though data is too limited to confirm or deny this classification; at a minimum, many IDPs are experiencing starvation indicative of Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). Famine (IPC Phase 5) is expected to continue in these areas through at least October and, in the absence of large-scale food assistance and an end to intense conflict, will possibly extend into the harvest and post-harvest seasons beyond October. FEWS NET also assesses there is a risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) across the rest of Al Fasher, in areas with high concentrations of displaced persons across Greater Darfur and South Kordofan, and in parts of West Darfur and Khartoum if conflict, coupled with humanitarian access denials, either directly isolates or indirectly prevents households from migrating to safer areas in search of food and income for a sustained period of time. An immediate and coordinated scale-up of multi-sectoral assistance is urgently required to mitigate further loss of life.
• In Ethiopia, Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected until September in northern conflict-and drought-affected areas where food and income access remain constrained. Until the start of the meher harvest in September, there is a risk of more severe outcomes. With the expected increased access to food and income with the meher harvest, improvement to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely except for in Afar, where Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes will likely persist in some areas through January 2025. In southern and southeastern pastoral areas, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected through January 2025 due to the enduring impact of the 2020-2023 drought amid concerns of the forecasted below-average October to December rainfall.
• In Somalia, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to persist until January 2024 in riverine areas of Gedo and Middle Shabelle, IDP settlements, and some of the agropastoral and pastoral areas worst affected by the lingering impacts of the 2020-2023 drought. However, many pastoral areas are benefiting from improved livestock production after favorable gu and deyr 2024 rainfalls, supporting Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in most pastoral areas through January 2025. Below-average national gu 2024 harvests are expected to constrain food availability and access in agropastoral and riverine areas in the south and north. In Kenya, widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in pastoral and marginal agricultural areas through January 2025 due to continued drought recovery following average March-May rainfall. However, in the flood-affected riverine areas of Garissa and Tana River counties, households are expected to face Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through January due to crop and asset damage and displacement, with about 33 percent of the displaced population dependent on humanitarian assistance to meet food needs.
• In South Sudan, humanitarian needs are expected to rise to record high levels at the peak of the July-September lean season, driven by the protracted impacts of conflict and flooding, economic crisis, high food prices, and high returnee burden amid underfunded and disrupted humanitarian assistance. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes will expand to 41 counties, while Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) outcomes are expected in the northern counties bordering Sudan, in the Sudd wetlands and along river basins, and in hard-to-reach areas of Pibor and Jonglei. With severe flooding expected to be worse than 2020 and 2022, combined with anticipated violence in advance of the planned elections in December, FEWS NET assesses a risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) from June 2024 to January 2025 in the most flood- and conflict-prone areas of Unity, Jonglei and Upper Nile if households are isolated from accessing typical food and income sources and humanitarian assistance is hindered for a prolonged period of time – particularly areas with high numbers of returnees and displaced persons living in overcrowded conditions, lacking assets and access to traditional livelihoods, and unfamiliar with gathering and consumption of wild foods.
• In Uganda, the below-average harvest after a poor first-season rainfall drives Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in the greater north region. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist in Karamoja, with some households facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes due to inadequate access to food and income after successive years of below-average harvests. Similarly, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will persist in most refugee settlements amid new displacements. In Burundi, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist in the north and west area throughout the projection period and extend to the east during the October 2024 to January lean period. Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes will likely persist among refugees and asylum seekers. However, food consumption gaps are expected to increase among flood-affected IDPs and recent returnees amid the anticipated scale-down of food assistance.

Source: FEWSNET