Posted on August, 16, 2024 at 10:22 am
The International Grains Council (IGC) trimmed its production forecast for total grains by 6 million tonnes from the previous month, with the European Union accounting for a large portion of the downward revision.
In its latest Grain Market Report, released on Aug. 15, the IGC noted that even with the month-on-month downgrade, global grains production in the 2024-25 marketing year is still projected at a record 2.315 billion tonnes, up from last year’s record of 2.299 billion.
Projected output for individual grains was little changed from July, with rice holding steady at 528 million tonnes, which would be a record, maize increasing by 1 million tonnes to a record 1.226 billion tonnes, and wheat declining by 2 million tonnes, to 799 million.
Total grains consumption also was trimmed slightly from the previous month to 2.321 billion tonnes, which would still be a record.
“Factoring in smaller opening inventories, the estimate for (total grains) carryover stocks are down by 5 million tonnes, to 581 million, including a tighter outlook in the major exporters,” the IGC said.
If realized, global carryover stocks would fall to their lowest level in 10 years.
The IGC revised 2024-25 soybean production higher by 4 million tonnes to 419 million, which would be a record and a 7% increase year on year.
“A record global outturn is expected in 2024-25, with sizeable crops likely in all leading producers,” the IGC said. “Amid heavy availabilities, consumption is set to reach a peak (406 million tonnes) as solid demand for soya products from feed, food and biofuel sectors boosts processing, with reserves also set to rise by 14 million tonnes.”
Weighed primarily by weakness in average world soybean export prices, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) fell by 4% from the past month. The index is down 18% year on year.
Source: World Grain