Posted on August, 22, 2024 at 08:01 am
The presence of two of the world’s most important agricultural producers and exporters — Brazil and Argentina — makes South America a powerhouse of world grains and oilseeds production and trade. The two make the region the leader in world soybean production, also producing large crops of maize (corn) and a significant tonnage of wheat.
According to the International Grains Council’s (IGC) projections, South America dominates world soybean production with a forecast 229.8-million-tonne crop in 2024-25, more than half the total global output, up from 216.3 million the year before. Brazil is the main driver, with a projected crop of 161.5 million tonnes, up from 150 million in 2023-24. Argentina’s 51-million-tonne crop, up from 49 million, comes next. Paraguay’s 10.3 million compares with the previous year’s 10.2 million, while Bolivia’s 3.7 million is unchanged. Uruguay’s soybean output is put at 3.1 million tonnes, down from 3.2 million, while “others” are responsible for an unchanged 200,000 tonnes.
South America’s maize (corn) production, set to total 192.5 million tonnes in 2024-25 (183.3 million in 2023-24) is dominated by Argentina at 54 million, down from 55 million, and Brazil at 124.6 million, up from the previous year’s 115.4 million. Paraguay accounts for 5.1 million tonnes of maize output, against 4.3 million in 2023-24, with Colombia at 1.5 million (1.6 million), Venezuela at 1.4 million (1 million) and “others” at 6 million (6.1 million).
Brazil is recovering from the impact of El Niño in 2023-24.
“Despite initially optimistic projections for the 2023-24 harvest, the El Niño has negatively impacted the corn and wheat crops,” the USDA attaché said in a report of April 1. “As a result, Post estimates corn production in MY 2023-24 will decrease to 122 million tonnes.”
The Brasilia-based experts forecast a rise in maize output to 129 million tonnes in marketing year 2024-25, which runs from March 2025 to February 2026, “in line with an expected rise in consumption, especially by the feed and ethanol industries.”
They predict a rise in area, to 22 million hectares from the previous year’s 21.5 million, based on the historical trend.
“While profit margins in the past season have been low for producers, corn is still widely consumed in Brazil and one of the top exporting commodities in the country, which can be planted multiple times per year,” they said.
“This increment is under a scenario of favorable weather conditions, following the alert of the possible end of the El Niño, which severely impacted yields this 2023-24 harvest.”
Brazil: soy capital
Brazil is a key global oilseed producer, accounting for almost a quarter of total global supply, the attaché said in a March 22 report, forecasting that in 2024-25, Brazil will produce 163.6 million tonnes of soybeans, cottonseed and peanuts.
“Soybeans are by far the most dominant oilseed, representing nearly 96% of all oilseeds produced in Brazil,” they said.
For soybeans alone, the attaché put 2024-25 production at 157.5 million tonnes, on the basis of an average national yield of 3,450 kilograms (kg) per hectare. It estimates the 2023-24 crop at 152.6 million tonnes, 4% below its previous figure of 158.5 million, from December.
“Lower yields outlooks have driven this downward estimate,” it said. “This results from the poor weather conditions across major producing regions, as the Center West.
“With high production costs, low prices, and thin margins, most Brazilian soybean farmers would have little incentive or available capital to sustain area expansion at the same rate as the previous seasons. As producers should have less available capital in 2024, the pace of area conversion (where it is possible), machinery acquisition, and increase of variable costs (e.g. fertilizers, seeds, labor, etc.) should also slow down.
“Amidst declining prices and persistently high production costs and interest rates, Brazilian farmers should opt for cutting back variable costs, which could lead to lower national yields by the end of next (marketing year). Naturally, some farmers will have had regular, or even better-than-anticipated yields during MY 2023-24, allowing them to invest in area expansion,” but “based on available data and interaction with key local stakeholders, Post does not expect that to be the reality of most soybean producers across Brazil.”
The IGC forecasts Brazil’s 2024-25 soybean exports at 100.6 million tonnes, up from 98.8 million in 2023-24. The figure means that Brazil is on course to supply well over half the soybeans traded, with the exports of all soybean producing countries coming to 174.6 million tonnes. US exports in 2024-25 are put at 49.8 million tonnes, while third-place Paraguay is at 6.3 million.
In the report, the attaché put Brazil’s soybean exports at 99 million tonnes in 2024-25, highlighting “sustained international demand from Asia, higher harvested volumes, a favorable exchange rate and higher competitiveness compared to other competitors, as the United States.”
“As Brazilian farmers are able to grow this commodity at a lower price due to lower costs of production, compared to the United States, Brazil is expected to continue supplying China with massive volumes of soybeans,” they commented, also noting that “a more competitive Brazilian reais to US dollars exchange rate should also continue to favor Brazil’s commodities exports, including oilseeds.”
The attaché put 2023-24 exports of soybeans from Brazil at 95 million tonnes, compared with its December 2023 forecast of 100 million.
“The reason for this expected reduction is due to lower estimated production due to poor weather late last year and increased domestic demand driven by higher biofuels mandate,” the attaché said.
The attaché also explained that “while China’s domestic consumption should increase 3% in 2023-24, largely driven by higher crush volumes, its record-high beginning stocks are expected to lead a plateaued growth in imports of less than half percent.”
“Our contacts have reported that Brazil’s exports to China should not be structurally affected by a potential slowdown of the Chinese economy — as volumes should remain at a high level, though growing at slower yearly rates,” they said.
Brazil’s maize exports, according to the IGC, will come to 43.7 million tonnes in 2024-25, down from 52.1 million in 2023-24, meaning that Brazil will be the world’s second largest producer, behind the United States, having held the top spot.
“It should be noted that China has played a huge role in maintaining high corn export values from Brazil,” the attaché said. “In 2023, Brazilian corn exports totaled 55.89 million tonnes, according to the Brazilian Secretariat of Foreign Trade (SECEX),” which “represented a growth of 29.42% compared to the previous year, driven mainly by the increase in production in the 2022-23 harvest and by significant exports to China, which bought 29% of all corn exported by Brazil.
“This value is eight times greater than all the corn imported by China in the 2016-17 harvest. China has become the leading destination for Brazilian grain, surpassing traditional partners such as Japan, which bought 11% of all Brazilian corn, Vietnam (8%), South Korea (6.2%) and Iran (5.8%).
“Brazil’s market share in China’s corn imports has grown exponentially after the country approved Brazilian corn imports in the third quarter of 2022 as part of measures to diversify its suppliers. China imported 16.1 million tonnes of Brazilian corn in 2023, taking a significant share of US corn imports. While Post envisions exports of Brazilian corn to continue at a steady flow, Brazil’s lower availability of corn for export and China’s growing interest in other markets, such as Argentina and Ukraine, should result in lower exports in 2024-25.”
Argentina’s soy output rising
In a May 1 report, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service put Argentina’s 2024-25 soybean production at 51 million tonnes, up 1.5 million from the year before.
“Despite the looming threat of a La Niña year, prospects are good for Argentina’s production to reach the levels initially hoped for,” the attaché said. “Even with a drier year expected ahead, production is forecast up on higher planted second soy crop.”
Soybean planted acreage is forecast to increase to 17.8 million hectares with an increased second soy crop planting due to fears of a dry year and the potential threat of the chicharrita (leafhopper) in corn, they said.
“Soy is considered by many producers to be a safer bet due to its average better returns despite higher production costs,” the FAS said. “Additionally, the chicharrita does not affect soy.”
The IGC forecasts Argentina’s 2024-25 soybean exports at 5.1 million tonnes, up from 4.8 million the year before.
“China was once again the top destination for Argentine whole soybeans with over 85% of exports to date in 2022-23,” the attaché said. “This is expected to continue in the next two years barring any political issues in the bilateral relationship.”
In an annual report dated April 17, the USDA attaché in Argentina put the country’s 2024-25 maize crop at 48 million tonnes on 6 million hectares.
“These are the lowest of the past six years,” the attaché said. “The outbreak of the corn stunt disease in 2023-24 is expected to make many farmers, especially in the central-northern areas, shift to soybeans.”
The IGC puts Argentina’s maize exports in 2024-25 at 34.5 million tonnes, up from 33 million the previous year.
“Owing to occasional heat stress and insect disease pressure, production in Argentina will fall short of earlier predictions,” it said. “Nonetheless, with acreage higher year-on-year and yields seen recovering after drought-induced losses in the season before, total output (including from on-farm uses) is projected to rebound to 55 million tonnes (up 33%).”
The attaché said that the main destinations are projected to be countries in Southeast Asia, South America and the Middle East.
Source: World Grain