Posted on August, 28, 2024 at 09:39 pm
On Monday (26 August), the European Commission released its monthly MARS report regarding crop development in EU member states and several neighbouring countries. Overall, the outlook for total cereals remains poor as the yield is estimated at 5.36 t/a, 0.12 t/ha below the five-year average.
While harvest remains underway on the continent, the European Commission has reduced yield estimates for soft wheat, barley (winter and spring), and maize.
As has been explained in previous MARS reports, the downward revision to winter crops has been largely attributed to excessively wet conditions across western and northern Europe, in addition to dry weather in eastern Europe.
Unfavourable weather conditions have continued during the summer where the Baltic countries experienced considerable rainfall which has led to lodging and impacting on grain quality. Furthermore, in the north-west of mainland Europe, rainfall has persisted and interrupted harvesting, leading to further pressure on crop conditions.
The downward revision to maize has come as a result of hot temperatures and limited water availability during July to mid-August in southern and eastern Europe.
Recently, the EU has been importing more cereals in response to poorer production seen in numerous EU member states.
In comparison to the three-year average, as at the same time period, imports of soft wheat, barley, and maize are all greater in 2024/25.
At the eighth week of the marketing year, wheat imports to the EU reached 955 Kt, while this is slightly lower than the pace last year (1022 Kt), this it still markedly above the three-year average of 608 Kt.
However, despite increased EU import demand, the UK has been unable to compete on soft wheat exports as UK feed wheat futures are currently priced at import parity to Paris milling wheat futures.
The current import parity has been supported by the below average UK wheat crop which, while quality is generally seen as positive considering conditions earlier in the year, the smaller planted area and lower average yield has hindered production.
Although there is much variation across EU member states regarding the impact of the unfavourable weather conditions on cereal crops, the third consecutive cut to the total cereals yield highlights the persistence of the difficult conditions felt across Europe.
Despite the increased EU wheat imports this marketing year, given the UK’s current import parity to the continent, as well as the global competitiveness in the cereals market, it is currently unlikely to see a significant volume of UK wheat exported to the EU.
Source: AHDB