Posted on September, 2, 2024 at 08:15 am
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Following the El Niño-induced drought driven by low/failed crop production in Zimbabwe, southern Malawi, and central and southern Mozambique, most poor households are increasing the use of Crisis coping strategies to meet their food needs. An earlier-than-normal depletion of harvested stocks – exacerbated by high and rising grain prices – has resulted in an atypically early start to the lean season with area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes expected through January 2025. Some households in the worst-affected areas are expected to experience Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes at the height of the lean season. The conflict-affected areas of DRC and Mozambique are expected to continue facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes due to poor access to normal livelihoods, while Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are expected in areas receiving humanitarian assistance.
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Poor crop production has resulted in an atypically poor market supply of grains in the drought-affected areas of Zimbabwe, southern Malawi, and central and southern Mozambique. Additionally, the ongoing conflict in Mozambique and DRC is expected to continue to drive poor market supply and access. Significant maize grain price increases of up to 50 percent were recorded between May and July across parts of Mozambique. In Malawi, maize grain prices in July were about 10 percent higher compared to June. In Zimbabwe, staple grain prices were equal to or higher than those recorded during the peak lean season in February and March 2024, and the alternative maize meal prices in July were 20-25 percent higher than normal. In DRC, there were notable price increases in July of about 26 and 11 percent for imported yellow maize and rice, respectively, compared to last year. Across the region, atypically high and escalating staple food prices are expected to continue constraining food access for poor households through the next harvests in 2025.
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The volatile and poor macroeconomic conditions in some countries are contributing to worsening food insecurity in the region. In DRC, annual headline inflation has slowed but remained relatively high (around 15 percent) in July. In DRC, the depreciation of the local currency and high fuel prices are contributing to basic food and non-food commodity price increases. In Zimbabwe, annual food inflation has trended upward since August 2023; basic food commodity prices are currently relatively stable, but still higher than most low-income households can afford. In Malawi, annual headline and food inflation stood at about 33 and 42 percent, respectively, in June. The continued increase in inflation is exerting pressure on all commodity prices and eroding household purchasing power across the region.
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As the dry season progresses, water access challenges and pasture deterioration are escalating in most typically arid parts of the region due to poor recharge from the below-normal 2023/24 rainy season. Most seasonal water sources such as streams, rivers, small dams, and some boreholes have either dried up or are critically low. This has affected household engagement in some seasonal livelihood activities – such as vegetable production, brick making, and fishing – and is driving localized, deteriorating cattle body conditions. Some households are resorting to distress livestock sales; however, low prices and poor demand are contributing to below-normal incomes from sales. Improvements in water and pastures are expected at the start of the rainy season in October/November, and livestock body conditions are expected to progressively improve through early 2025.
Source: ReliefWeb
