Frost isn't imminent, fall looks pleasant, and global weather could lead to higher grain supplies

Drew Lerner, a meteorologist with World Weather Inc., doesn't see frost in the forecast for the Red River Valley for at least the next 10 days.

And though he's forecasting good weather at least that far out for this part of the region, Lerner spent much of his 45-minute talk at the Red River Farm Network Issues and Events Center at the Big Iron Farm Show talking about how faulty forecasts really can be and all the variables meteorologists have to consider in making their weather guesses.

"We think we know so much, seriously, and I think we forget that we're not in control of the weather," he said.

Throughout his talk, he noted the things he looks at in forecasting, including 18-year cycles, El Niño and La Niña patterns, and ocean oscillations, as well as less common factors like volcanic eruptions and wildfires. Meteorologists base long-term forecasts on what they think, based on their knowledge and experience, will be the most dominating factor. If they get that factor wrong, he explained, the forecast is going to be wrong as well.

Lerner also discussed the impact technologies have played in changing forecasting. Social media, he said, has provided verification of conditions that meteorologists once only could guess at, providing additional data that can help improve data networks that form the basis of forecasts. But at the same time, social media can make weather seem more outrageous because anyone with a phone becomes the reporter, when the truth is "weather has always been outrageous; it's always been extreme," he said. Meanwhile, artificial intelligence is helping meteorologists sort through data more efficiently, but AI can only be as effective as whoever designed it and has a ways to go, he said.

Lerner also gave a rundown of some long-term forecast predictions:

• The northern Plains seems likely to have a "fairly decent fall." There's not a lot of cold air in the atmosphere, but there's been a pretty predictable repeating pattern of cold air returning every 45 days. He expects that pattern will cease after October, which normally "tears everything up and we start all over again." He doesn't expect "big soaking rains" anytime soon, but he does expect a "more typical autumn pattern" of regular rains.
• Europe has been in a wet pattern, with a "massive" high pressure system sitting over Russia. The wet pattern has caused heavy rain and flooding in the Czech Republic and Italy, and France also was really wet for awhile, he said. Meanwhile, the high pressure system has kept Russia and Ukraine dry.
• China has had a lot of rain this summer but always seems to progress from wet to dry and still get their crops to the finish line.
• India, similarly to China, seems to always manage wet seasons, and their monsoon season was better than expected.
• Things are looking really good in Australia after a dry start. With regular rainfall, they should have a good crop.
• South America has been dry, but Lerner said he doesn't think it's going to be too dry for Brazil to produce an average or above-average soybean crop. The dry and wet periods there are typical, and coverage of the dry periods is often too hyperbolic. Argentina, meanwhile, is very dry, but Lerner thinks Brazil is more significant for market movement.

In short, Lerner doesn't see any big weather problems that could cut into the massive crop supplies that have built up.

"The supply is just too great," he said. "I want the prices to go up too guys, but unfortunately, we're in a bad position worldwide right now."

Source: AGWEEK