RATIN

Large Carry-Over Sales Buoy U.S. Grain Exports

Posted on September, 12, 2024 at 11:49 pm


Export sales of U.S. corn and soybeans exceeded ranges forecast by analysts this week, with hefty volumes of sales being carried over to the current marketing year from the previous one.

In its latest weekly export sales report, the Department of Agriculture said that for the week ended Sept. 4, total sales of corn were 2.12 million metric tons, and total soybean sales were 2.43 million tons. Both of these figures well exceed the high end of analyst ranges, due to the large amount of sales carried over from the now-ended 2023/24 marketing year. For corn, 1.45 million tons were carried over, and for soybeans 953,800 tons carried over.

Sept. 1 marked the end of the 2023/24 marketing year, and the official beginning of the 2024/25 marketing year. 2024/25 is now the current marketing year, and any sales of next spring's crop will be under 2025/26. No 2025/26 sales were reported for corn or soybeans.

Wheat sales totaled 474,900 for 2024/25, up 40% from the previous week. However, sales for 2025/26 were negative, with 200 tons being reduced from previously announced transactions.

 

Mexico was the leading buyer of corn for 2024/25, while China was the lead buyer for soybeans and Taiwan was the top buyer of wheat.

Most-active grain futures on the CBOT are higher pre-market, ahead of the USDA's release of its monthly WASDE report at noon eastern time. Wheat is leading the complex, driven by decreasing outlook for European harvests.

"The market continues to find buying as the European wheat fundamental outlook gets more bullish with every lower production estimate," says Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives in a note. "With wheat supplies held by major exporters forecast at multi-year lows, look for higher prices over time."

Source: Market Watch