Posted on September, 20, 2024 at 10:20 am
Record global grain production and consumption are forecast for the 2024-25 marketing year, while ending stocks are projected at a 10-year low, according to the International Grains Council’s (IGC) latest grain market report.
The report, released on Sept. 18, listed total grains (wheat and coarse grains) output at 2.315 billion tonnes and consumption at 2.325 billion tonnes. It projected ending stocks to slide to 581 million tonnes, the lowest level since 2014-15.
The records are forecast despite the IGC predicting slight declines in corn and wheat production, to 1.224 billion and 798 million tonnes, respectively.
Global grains trade is seen falling to the lowest level since the 2020-21 season, when 396 million tonnes were shipped, the IGC said.
“Reduced import needs in Asia and Europe are reflected in a forecast 7% contraction in global trade, to 421 million tonnes,” the IGC said.
The IGC predicted a positive outlook for soybeans and rice in 2024-25.
A 7% year-on-year increase in production, to 419 million tonnes, is forecast for soybeans. The IGC also predicted record soybean consumption (406 million tonnes), with trade rising for the third consecutive year to 178 million tonnes.
Boosted by larger harvests in Asia, global rice output is seen reaching a record 528 million tonnes this year, a 1% year-on-year gain.
“(Rice) trade in 2024-25 is tentatively projected to edge up to 54 million tonnes, shaped by potential buying by African importers,” the IGC said.
The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index, which tracks prices for wheat, corn, barley, rice and soybeans, gained 5% from the August report, “as a number of markets consolidated after late summer losses, but with average prices still down 15% year on year.”
Source: World Grain