Posted on September, 24, 2024 at 08:39 am
Russia may review its official grain harvest forecast for this year after grain-producing regions submit their final estimates by the end of this week, the country's agriculture ministry said on Monday.
Russia, the world's biggest wheat exporter, has so far stuck to its official forecast of 132 million tons despite extreme weather hitting many of its key grain-producing regions this year.
That is an 11% drop from 148 million tons in 2023 and a 16% drop from a record 158 million tons in 2022. Russia forecasts its grain exports at 60 million tons.
"By the end of this week, regions must submit their final assessments of the expected harvest to the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia for adjusting the forecast for 2024 across the Russian Federation," the ministry said in a statement.
The ministry said 78% of the area under grain crops has been harvested across the country, yielding 105.9 million tons of grain, including 77.7 million tons of wheat.
In total, 10.6 million hectares of grain crops remain to be harvested nationwide, of which 8 million hectares are in the Volga, Ural, and Siberian federal districts.
"Due to challenging weather conditions, there is a delay in the pace of work in the Urals, Siberia, and the Volga region," the ministry said.
The ministry did not elaborate on its review, but extreme weather from early spring frosts to drought or heavy rains has hit a dozen key grain-producing regions, causing them to cut their own forecasts for the harvest.
The biggest grain-producing region, Rostov, said in July it was expecting its harvest to decline by 38% this year to 10 million tons as a blistering heatwave followed spring frosts. Last year, Rostov accounted for 11% of Russia's total harvest.
Krasnodar, Russia's second-biggest grain-producing region, is expecting its harvest to drop 17%, also to 10 million tons, as an extreme summer drought spurred the harvesting campaign. Regional officials said bad weather also affected the crop's quality.
Altai region in Siberia became the fifth Russian region on Sept. 20 to declare a state of emergency this month due to crop problems caused by extreme weather, saying too much rain had waterlogged the soil.
Altai is Russia's ninth-largest grain producer, having harvested 4.6 million metric tons of grains last year.
Other Siberian regions - Tomsk, Novosibirsk, Kemerovo and Krasnoyarsk - have all declared states of emergency this month, a formal designation that allows farmers to claim compensation and insurance payments.
Taken together, the five affected regions accounted for about 8% of last year's grain harvest in Russia.
Source: XM