Posted on September, 30, 2024 at 09:11 am
Weather concerns in North America and Europe have put a bullish element into world wheat markets in recent weeks, but low-priced supplies from the Black Sea capped a rally in late September.
In its Grain Market Report of Sept. 20, the International Grains Council (IGC) said that “world export prices initially weakened on sustained Black Sea competition, but firmed thereafter, as attention shifted to unfavorable weather in some exporters, with renewed geopolitical concerns also featuring.” Global prices for wheat, “rebounded from a near four-year low in late-August and rose by a net 4% since the last GMR, albeit with mixed changes across underlying origins,” the IGC said.
“Gains in US quotations were especially strong, as traders covered short positions in futures markets amid robust US export sales and mild worries about local spring wheat production,” the Council explained. “Quotations in Canada also firmed on rain-induced harvest delays, albeit as an unexpectedly large upgrade to official inventory estimates helped to temper upside.”
Prices in France, “advanced strongly on tight local availabilities, slow farmer selling and brisk domestic demand,” the IGC said, also explaining that “overseas buying interest remained thin amid competitive Black Sea offers, despite occasional reports of intensified tensions in that region.”
Prices in Russia and Ukraine were easier month on month, “largely bucking the recent uptrend at other origins,” the IGC said. “Although unfavorable fieldwork conditions reportedly dampened farmer selling interest, local supplies continued to be offered at sizeable discounts to competing origins, with fob values said to be weighed by elevated freight costs.”
The IGC also said that “although activity was seasonally slow, quotations in Argentina and Australia slipped month-over-month, as local crop ideas remained above last season’s levels, despite recent less-than-optimal growing conditions.”
The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture explained in its “Grain: World Markets and Trade report,” published on Sept. 12, that since the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, released Aug. 12, “global exporter quotes were mixed as production concerns for some exporters increased demand for wheat from the United States and Canada.”
“US quotes gained $18 per tonne with improved export sales and inspections data,” the FAS said. “Canadian quotes rose $9 per tonne as the Statistics Canada production outlook fell slightly below market expectations and a short-lived rail stoppage threatened to disrupt exports.”
The FAS also reported an $18 per tonne fall in Australian prices on “increased production and improved conditions in Western Australia.” Argentine quotes were $14 per tonne lower on “favorable growing conditions and plantings complete on a larger area than last year,” the FAS said. Russian prices were down $4 per tonne, “with harvest pressure balancing out quality concerns due to adverse weather.”
“EU quotes dipped just $2 per tonne as a smaller crop in France was balanced by slow global demand for EU exports as the Black Sea is more competitive,” the FAS added.
US Wheat Associates, in its Weekly Price Report of Sept. 20, commented that “futures markets have retreated after last week’s gains due to the continued impact of low-priced Russian wheat.” In its report, USW explained the rise as “escalations in the Russia-Ukrainian war, technical short covering, and a weaker dollar.” The escalations included a Sept. 12 attack by Russia on a ship in the Black Sea, transporting wheat to Egypt.
“Russian wheat remains stable near $220 per tonne, even as other global FOB values rise,” USW noted. It explained that following the previous week’s rally, US farmers “were more active, which shifted wheat stocks to commercial ownership, though sales decreased as prices trended downward.”
Source: World Grain