Food Security Monitor - September 2024

Summary

Our monthly Food Security Monitor is one way AGRA makes data available to key stakeholders to underpin evidence-based decisionmaking. Highlights from the September 2024 Food Security Monitor are summarised below:

Food Security Updates

The prevalence of food insufficient consumption has increased rapidly in the East African and West African regions from August 2024 according to the WFPHungerMap Live. Across five selected East African countries, the number of people who did not have sufficient food for consumption has gone up by 11.6million people from 33.7 million in August to 45.3 million in September 2024.This deterioration in food insecurity across these select countries is driven by a rise in Uganda, Rwanda and South Sudan. Similarly, the number of people with insufficient food for consumption across seven selected West African countries had gone up by 7.6 million driven by a rise in Ghana, Nigeria, andTogo. It appears the aftermath of the weather-related shocks (floods and droughts), conflicts and refugee burdens, as well as challenging macroeconomic conditions are impacting negatively the food security situation in the seregions. Food insecurity remains still of high concern in the Southern African region, with a growing food need anticipated across Southern Africa through early 2025. Despite the decline in maize prices supported by cross-border imports from Tanzania and ongoing food assistance support program by the WFP, the early depletion of households’ food stocks and the early onset of the lean season is worsening the food security situation. The Southern African Development Community (SADC)estimates about 68 million people (nearly 17% of the region’s population) are affected, while the number of people with insufficient food for consumption has gone up by 100,000 more people

Food Commodity Prices Updates

Overall, the national average price of maize(in local currency) in the Eastern African region is significantly lower than a year ago in all select East African countries except for South Sudan. The prices of maize in South Sudan remain46-196% higher than the past 1-12 months. Tanzania maintains the lowest price of maize in the region (in USD terms) at USD220/Mt compared to almost or overUSD300/Mt in all other countries. Kenya records the most expensive prices (inUSD terms) of maize, rice, wheat and beans in the region given that the price of maize in Kenya attracts excess margins from retailers of up to 82% due tot he high demand of the staple crop in the country. Uganda's maize price remained considerably low when compared to the past 1-12 months, whileEthiopia’s maize price, both in local currency and USD, also continued to drop influenced by the onset of the Me her season cereals harvests.

In Southern Africa, the national average prices of maize in local currencies show declines in Malawi and Zambia but a low uptick in Zimbabwe compared to the past month. This is attributable to imports from neighbouringTanzania as well as the ongoing food assistance support program by the WFP.Overall, the price of maize remains above the levels seen 6-12 months ago due to macroeconomic challenges, the aftermath of Cyclone Freddy and the ElNino-induced drought. According to FEWSNET, Malawi is expected to experience a La Niñaphenomenon this year, which will result in an average to above-average rainfall season in most parts of the country and lead to average to average national harvests.

In West Africa, the overall local prices of maize show higher trends compared to the past 3, 6, and 12 months underpinned by high transport costs and strong domestic demand due to a below-average cereal output in 2023that has led to households' early reliance on markets and as well conflicts in the region. The prices of rice, millet, and sorghum also generally remain above their 3, 6, and 12-months levels in most of the monitored West African countries. Nigeria registered the most significant rise in prices of maize and rice, at 200-250% and 92-161% respectively, higher than a year ago. With the completion or near completion of harvesting of main season cereals in the region, we expect prices inmost markets to start declining except in northern Ghana where the impact of the drought conditions remains a concern, plus those regions impacted by ongoing conflicts and socio-economic challenges. The ongoing high cost-of-living crisis due to high inflation rates, currency depreciation, and elevated fuel prices continue to pose a threat to staple crop prices in this region. West African countries need to open trade to allow the free flow of grains in the region contrary to the current self-seeking restrictive trade policies. Development partners will need to double up efforts at food assistance and support to increase food production in the medium to long term.

Food Trade Updates

• The Government of Kenya has imposed levies on imports of cereals (2%), legumes/pulses (2%), and roots and tubers (1%), and 0.3% levies on the export of the same products, which came into effect on 1st July 2024.
• The Government of Kenya has also imposed a ban on sugar imports from outside the Common Market forEastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) and the East African Community (EAC), two regional trade blocs, citing an increase in local production.
• The East African Community (EAC)and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) are set to commence implementation of the Eastern Africa Regional Digital Integration Project(EARDIP), a transformative initiative aimed at improving digital connectivity and integration across Eastern Africa.

Source: ReliefWeb