Posted on October, 22, 2024 at 09:54 am
Average oilseed prices have moved lower in recent weeks as crop prospects for soybeans improved, but the outlook for rapeseed has remained bullish.
The International Grains Council (IGC) in its Oct. 17 Grain Market Report said, “average international soybean values, as tracked by the IGC GOI sub-Index, softened by a net 3%,” since the previous month’s report, “on an increasingly bearish fundamental backdrop, with broadly comparable declines at all origins.”
“Chicago soybean spot values retreated compared to mid-September,” it said. “The market initially moved higher as underlying worries about Brazilian planting weather underpinned, with strength in energy and vegetable oils values, coupled with an upturn in international demand for US supplies, adding to the positive tone.”
In recent weeks, however, futures weakened as prospects for favorable South American crop weather weighed, the IGC said, noting that the Oct. 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates from the US Department of Agriculture had underscored “prospects for heavy US and global harvests.”
“With basis levels little-changed month on month, Gulf export quotations eased by 2%, to US$405 fob,” it said. “With export premiums showing only modest adjustments over the month, Brazilian fob prices (Paranagua) tracked US futures lower, dropping by 3%, to $420.”
The Council also reported that in Argentina, a similar fall in Up River offers was registered, to $406 fob.
On rapeseed, the IGC said that “ICE canola futures in Canada advanced by a net 3% month on month as support from local crop worries, short covering and an uptick in export demand underpinned, more than offsetting harvesting pressure and weakness in soybeans. Fob quotations (Vancouver) advanced by $9, to $472, with Australian quotations (Kwinana) rising relatively more sharply, by $38, to $528 fob.”
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said in its Food Price Index report of Oct. 4 that vegetable oil prices in September were 4.6% up from their level in August, at their highest level since early 2023.
“The continued rise of the price index was driven by higher quotations across palm, soy, sunflower and rapeseed oils,” it said. “International palm oil prices rose for the fourth consecutive month in September, underpinned mainly by concerns over lower-than-expected production that coincided with anticipated seasonal output declines in major Southeast Asian producing countries.
“Meanwhile, world soy oil quotations rebounded due primarily to lower-than-expected crushing in the United States. As for sunflower and rapeseed oils, the marginal price recoveries in September were supported by a tightening supply outlook, following reduced outputs of respective oilseeds in the 2024-25 season.”
In its Oil Crops Outlook, published Oct. 16, the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) pointed out that 2024-25 opening stocks have been cut because of a reduction in Indonesian palm oil production in 2023-24. Indonesian production in 2024-25 is also lower, although partly offset by higher output in Thailand.
“Rising palm oil prices are expected to result in lower consumption. Palm oil prices (Malaysia, Free On Board) surged to $1,070 per tonne in the first week of October, which is $82 higher than the average price in September, and almost 19% higher than the September 2023 price level. ERS reported Argentina, Up River, FOB soybean oil rising to $1,003 per tonne in the first week of October.”
As a result, palm oil prices were nearly $70 higher compared with soybean oil prices on the FOB basis, it said, noting that “historically palm oil is a discount priced oil to soybean oil.”
Source: World Grain