Signs of added support for commodity import demand in a range of countries have become more visible in data emerging recently. These positive elements could enable the world seaborne dry bulk trade trend to continue strengthening into 2025.
Benefits derived directly from advances in economic activity in the main dry bulk commodity importing countries currently are modest. OECD economists in their latest end-September assessment nevertheless emphasize that “global output growth has remained resilient and inflation has continued to moderate”. World GDP growth is forecast to stay almost unchanged at 3.2% in both 2024 and 2025 after a similar 3.1% last year.
GRAIN & SOYA
Indications pointing to a mixed pattern of grain and soya trade during the next twelve months have emerged. Following a strong performance through most of this year, tentative estimates for the period ahead suggest that momentum may slow or reverse, although import demand in numerous countries is not easily predictable.
Prospects for soyabeans and meal trade suggest that further expansion may prove elusive. As shown in table 1, US Department of Agriculture calculations published in mid-September showed a 17mt (million tonnes) or 7% increase in world soya trade within the 2023/24 marketing year just ended, to 248mt. In 2024/25 now starting, the upwards trend may flatten. China’s imports are expected to decrease from the record high volume seen in the past twelve months, offset by growth elsewhere.
COAL
Global import demand for coal has been well supported this year and may remain buoyant in the year ahead, although there are doubts about whether some countries’ purchases will remain as elevated as seen recently. Positive influences are still evident, but potential negative changes also are clearly an element that is likely to have a weakening effect eventually.
A slightly downbeat forecast is contained in the latest quarterly update prepared by analysts at the Australian Government Department of Industry. This report suggests that global trade in steam and coking coal (including land movements, but mostly seaborne), could be marginally lower by 13mt or 1% in 2024, compared with last year’s 1,462mt volume, at 1,449mt. Steam coal trade may be under 1% lower at 1,108mt, while coking coal trade decreases by 2% to 341mt.
IRON ORE
Sustained annual growth in world seaborne iron ore trade seems likely to be achieved during 2024, but the incremental volume is dependent on China’s import expansion. In the ‘other importers’ group comprising about a quarter of the global total, an increase seems unlikely, amid weakness in the European Union and Japan.
In the first eight months of 2024, iron ore imported by China totalled 815mt, a 5% rise compared with last year’s same period. This strong performance may not continue, however. Restraints on steel demand in China’s domestic market have been reflected in a 3% steel output reduction within this period, implying lower raw materials inputs are required. Additional ore imports have been used to rebuild port stocks.
MINOR BULKS
Trends in minor bulk trades movements suggest that a broadly positive pattern in this huge segment is unfolding. Global volumes of many industrial and agricultural commodities seem to be expanding in 2024. More activity in the steel products, forest products and bauxite/alumina trades, together comprising over two-fifths of the total, is evident.
BULK CARRIER FLEET
Among bulk carrier size groups, the ‘Panamax’ (70–99,999 deadweight tonnes) segment, including kamsarmax vessels, is maintaining solid growth. Newbuilding deliveries in 2024 are expected to be similar to last year’s level, as shown in table 2, while scrapping remains quite low. The resulting estimated fleet deadweight growth of about 3.5% over the twelve months to end-2024 is similar to that seen in several previous years.
