Food Security Monitor - October 2024

Food Security Updates

In East Africa, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes persist across many parts of the monitored countries, except in South Sudan, where widespread Emergency (IPC Phase 4)conditions persist, with Catastrophic (IPC Phase 5) conditions expected in some households in hard-to-reach areas of Pibor, among returnees and refugees in transit areas like Renk, Rubkona, and Aweil East, and for some displaced households in the most severely flood-affected regions of Jonglei, Unity, Warrap, and parts of Upper Nile and Northern Bahr el Ghazal. In Southern Africa, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) conditions are projected to persist across the region through March 2025. In Malawi, FEWS NET projects that the number of people experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) conditions, mainly in southern Malawi, will peak at around 4-5 million between January and March 2025. In Mozambique, the Food Security Cluster (FSC) partners aim to support 1.1 million people affected by El Niño, with current outreach reaching 30% of the target population as outlined in the 2024 Humanitarian Response Plan. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes mostly prevail in West African region, except in Togo where Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Minimal(IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected to prevail in Savannah regions and other parts of the country until the pre-lean season in April/May 2025 due to generally average harvests.

Food Commodity Prices Updates

Overall, the national average price of maize (in local currency) in the Eastern African region is significantly lower in all select East African countries except for South Sudan where maize prices remain 123.16%-238.01% higher than the past 1-12 months. Tanzania maintains the lowest maize prices (in USD terms) at USD 221/MT compared to over USD 300/Mt in all other countries. Kenya has the most expensive prices (in USD terms) for maize, wheat, rice, and beans in the region, with Kenya’s maize price reflecting a 40% premium over the import parity price from southwest Tanzania. Uganda's prices remained considerably low compared to the past 1-12 months, while Ethiopia’s wheat prices higher than the past 1-6 months associated with below-average stocks, high demand, insecurity that disrupted agricultural operations in some parts of Amhara region. In Southern Africa, the national average prices of maize in local currencies show slight increases compared to the past month underpinned by currency depreciation and costs associated with transportation of maize from neighboring countries like Tanzania. The current water and power crisis in Zambia is hindering irrigation farming, while Malawi’s limited forex availability presents difficulties in stabilizing future prices. However, weather forecast predicts a high probability of above‑average rainfall in the region between November 2024 and April 2025,supported by the likely occurrence of a La Niña event that is expected to bring ample rainfall and improve Zambia's electricity generation through hydro-powerplants.

In West Africa, the overall local prices of maize show a significantly upward trend compared to October 2023 between 11.11%and 299.59% occasioned by weak currency, high transport costs and strong domestic demand resulting from below-average cereal production. The prices of rice, millet, and sorghum remain above their 3, 6, and 12-month levels in most monitored West African countries, though they have shown stability or declines over the past month, attributed to the completion or near-completion of main-season cereal harvests in the region. Nigeria registered the most significant rise in prices of maize and rice, at 299.59% and 170.24%respectively, higher than a year ago. The impact of drought conditions remains a concerning Ghana, where almost 50% of the country’s cropland area has been impacted by poor germination and crop wilting and stunting, and many parts of the middle belt and north have experienced crop failures. With the ongoing high inflation rates, currency depreciation, conflict-related market disruptions and elevated fuel prices continue to pose a threat to staple crop prices in this region.

Food Trade Updates

• Tanzania joins Lobito Corridor linking the Indian Ocean to the Atlantic (The East African). The Lobito Corridor project, which connects four African countries, is ready for implementation after the US awarded a technical assistance grant for an environmental assessment study. A feasibility study and the signing of the concession agreement are also complete for the 780 km greenfield railway connecting the Lobito rail line in Luacano, Angola, to the existing railway line in Chingola, Zambia.
• Malawi and Mozambique successfully concluded and signed the Simplified Trade Agreement (STR) framework between them. The framework, which will ensure smooth participation of small-scale cross-border traders in regional trade, was signed on 18th October 2024 in Lilongwe, Malawi.
• Zambia has officially joined the Central Corridor, which connects landlocked countries to the Indian Ocean via Tanzania, thereby extending the corridor’s reach southward beyond the EastAfrican Community (EAC) bloc.
• Zimbabwe has submitted its provisional tariff concession schedule to the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) secretariat as the Government steps up efforts toward fully implementing arrange of trade facilitation measures.
• The ECOWAS Bank for Investment and Development (EBID), at its 89th Ordinary Session, approved investments totaling EUR 61 million and USD 100 million to stimulate the infrastructure, trade, and sustainable development sectors in West Africa.

Source: ReliefWeb