Posted on November, 20, 2024 at 10:22 am
The Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) has confirmed that US wheat markets fell significantly during the week ending Friday, November 14.
In addition, Chicago wheat futures (December 2024) are down 6.3% for the period in question.
The cereals complex was pressured by a stronger US dollar, forecasts of favourable weather in key growing regions – such as the US and western Europe, and the competitiveness of Black Sea exports.
According to the AHDB, favourable rains are forecast in the US, which could improve winter wheat crop conditions further.
As a result, Chicago wheat futures prices are near four-year lows. Paris milling wheat futures were under pressure from US markets, as well as an accelerated winter planting campaign in France.
Stratégie Grains in France estimates the wheat area in the EU to increase on the year, due to improved weather conditions, while barley and maize areas could decrease.
Meanwhile, Australia is in the process of harvesting a larger-than-expected wheat crop.
Not surprisingly, UK feed wheat futures tracked pressure in global wheat markets last week. Futures were affected by the weakening of sterling against the US dollar and the euro.
Where barley is concerned, markets have been stable due to competitive prices compared to maize and feed wheat.
However, prices may have limited upside potential, as demand from the likes of China and Saudi Arabia is steady for now.
It has been estimated that 89% of the French winter barley had been planted by November 11, up from 83% last year, but behind the five-year average of 91%.
A strong US dollar, steady wheat exports and forecasts of favourable weather in parts of the northern hemisphere could pressure wheat prices in the short-term.
However, weather risks for winter wheat crops in the Black Sea could keep prices steady longer-term.
Where maize is concerned, competitive export prices and firm ethanol production in the US provide some stability in the near-term, while comfortable global supply forecasts limit price rises beyond that.
According to the AHDB, the wider grains complex continues to drive barley prices, with weak demand from major importers limiting any gains.
Source: Agriland