Posted on December, 5, 2024 at 07:33 am
Australian winter crop production is forecast to rise 16% year on year to 55.1 million tonnes for marketing year 2024-25, despite significant variation in growing conditions across states, according to a report from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).
If realized, the 2024-25 crop would be 17% above the 10-year average of 47.1 million tonnes and the fifth highest on record, ABARES said in its quarterly Australian Crop Report published on Dec. 3.
Higher production in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia supported by above-average rainfall and high soil moisture is expected to mostly offset reduced production and crop losses in large parts of southeastern Australia caused by persistent dryness and widespread severe frosts, ABARES said.
Area planted to winter crops in 2024–25 is estimated to have increased by 7% to 24.6 million hectares. This is a new national record, driven by a greater area planted to winter crops in New South Wales (up 23%) and Queensland (up 36%). Favorable seasonal conditions at the time of planting led to area increases in both states, with many expanding into regions not normally sown to winter crops such as northwest New South Wales.
Wheat production is expected to increase by 23% to 31.9 million tonnes in 2024-25, 20% above the 10-year average. Wheat production in New South Wales and Western Australia — the two largest wheat producing states — is forecast to rebound by 75% and 40% respectively, driven by increased production in northern cropping regions of both states.
Barley production is seen increasing by 8% to 11.7 million tonnes, 3% above the 10-year average, reflecting an estimated 6% increase in area and above-average national barley yields.
Meanwhile, a decrease in canola planted area and lower yields due to dry conditions in southeastern Australia, where most of the crop is grown, is expected to push down production 8% to 5.6 million tonnes. Area planted remains above the 10-year average, however, resulting in expected canola production remaining 23% above the 10-year average.
Australia is the world’s largest exporter of barley and among the top shippers of wheat and canola.
Looking ahead, summer crop production, which includes sorghum, cotton and rice, is forecast to fall by 7% to 4.4 million tonnes in 2024-25. This would still be 20% above the 10-year average of 3.6 million tonnes. Area planted to summer crops for 2024–25 is forecast to remain above average at 1.3 million hectares.
Source: World Grain