Posted on December, 6, 2024 at 09:12 am
As suspected for some time, Canadian canola production was not able to reach the 18 million metric ton (mmt) level, let alone the Sept. 16 Statistics Canada model-based prediction of 18.98 mmt. In its final production estimate, Statistics Canada pegged the crop at 17.845 mmt, down from 19.192 last year. Lower yields and production were seen across all three Prairie provinces thanks to increased disease pressure and drought stress.
With 1.135 mmt less to work with than the most recent Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) estimate, the unsustainable pace of exports and domestic use should come back into focus. According to the Canadian Grain Commission's (CGC) most recent weekly grain statistics report, total exports to the end of week 16 were 3.695 mmt compared to 1.940 mmt last year and an annual projection of 7.5 mmt. Domestic use continued at a record pace with 3.731 mmt processed compared to 3.289 mmt last year with week 17 updates expected later Thursday.
More details can be found in recent blog posts. See "AAFC Didn't Change Any Canola Estimates in November Update, So We Will Provide a Progress Report,"
and "Soybean Oil Export Sales Continue To Surprise,"
.
Expectations are that sales to China are slowing out of fear of retaliatory action being taken, even though it could be some time before the results of their anti-dumping investigation into Canadian canola are released. It will be interesting to monitor actual exports, given the significant discount canola has compared to European rapeseed, Australian canola and palm oil. Others in the world may very well step in to take up the slack from China even if sales there do slow.
Back to the Statistics Canada final production report -- cereals in general fared much better with 'all wheat' totals exceeding last month and last year while barley and oats had smaller declines from 2023 than expected in September.
Wheat ex-durum came in at 29.088 mmt, above the 28.260 estimate in September and 28.859 last year. Durum was the other way around with 5.870 mmt produced, less than the 6.033 mmt expected in September, thanks to late-season drought stress. It still exceeded the 2023 production of 4.900 mmt, thanks to increased seeded area.
Manitoba and Saskatchewan witnessed significant increases in wheat yields and production from the latest update while Alberta produced less, thanks to a late-season drought.
Barley production improved over the September estimate, but still fell short of last year by a significant margin. That trend was evident across all three Prairie provinces. Production of 8.144 mmt will give more of a cushion for increased feed use than the Sept. 16 estimate of 7.600 mmt, but the decline from 8.905 mmt produced in 2023 will still make it difficult to keep up the current pace of exports while leaving enough for feed.
Oat production followed a similar path with Thursday's estimate by Statistics Canada of 3.358 mmt exceeding both the September estimate of 3.017 mmt and last years production of 2.643 mmt. Significantly higher yields in Manitoba accounted for the bulk of the change with increased seeded area across the Prairies contributing to the year-over-year improvement.
Corn production came in lighter than 2023, but ahead of previous estimates, both for Manitoba and countrywide totals. Manitoba produced 1.767 mmt, down slightly from 1.785 mmt last year, but substantially better than the 1.670 mmt previously predicted by Statistics Canada. The increase was based on higher yield estimates and should help the feed situation in Western Canada. Total Canadian corn production was pegged at 15.345 mmt compared to 15.421 mmt last year and expectations of 15.168 mmt in September.
Soybeans followed the pattern with exceptional yields in Manitoba boosting total production. Country wide, it came in at 7.568 mmt, up from 6.981 mmt last year and 7.197 predicted in September. Manitoban production went from 1.430 mmt expected in September to 1.697 mmt as a final number for the year. The increased yield more than offset the lower-seeded area with 1.567 mmt produced last year.
Source: Prgressive Farmer