Posted on January, 16, 2025 at 11:11 pm
Global corn production and consumption are heading in opposite directions in 2024-25, according to the latest International Grains Council’s Grain Market Report.
In its monthly report, released Jan. 16, the IGC projected a 7-million-tonne decline in corn output from the November forecast and a drop of 12 million tonnes year on year.
Meanwhile, the corn consumption forecast increased by 4 million tonnes month on month to 1.239 billion tonnes and by 13 million tonnes compared to 2023-24.
Total grains production, which includes wheat and coarse grains, was lowered to 2.305 billion tonnes in the 2024-25 marketing year, a decline of 4 million tonnes.
Wheat production and consumption held steady month on month and year on year at 796 million tonnes and 805 million tonnes, respectively.
Total grains carryover stocks in 2024-25 are forecast at 573 million tonnes, a 31-million-tonne decline from the previous year. The decrease is mainly due to a 20-million-tonne decrease in corn carryover stocks, the IGC said. The carryover of total grains is at its lowest point in a decade.
With increased outlooks for South American and Asian growers more than offsetting a reduced crop in the United States, world soybean production in 2024-25 is forecast to increase by 6% year on year to a record 420 million tonnes, the IGC said.
Rice also is projected to reach a new global production record, rising 2% from the previous year to 535 million tonnes. The IGC said gains are anticipated in the five major rice producing countries, led by India.
While trade in rice and soybeans is expected to hold steady, the IGC forecasts a substantial drop of 39 million tonnes in total grains exports. A 17-million-tonne drop in both wheat and corn trade are expected.
The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Prices Index weakened slightly over the past two months as “net decline in average rice, wheat and soybean fob prices more than compensated for strength in corn and barley markets.”
The index, which stands at 221, is 8% lower than in January 2024, thanks mostly to a 24% decline in rice prices year on year.
Source: World Grain