Posted on January, 20, 2025 at 07:41 am
After two straight years of sharp gains, the upward momentum slowed in the Consumer Price Index for baked foods and cereal products. The index increased 0.5% in 2024, which followed gains of 8.4% in 2023, 13% in 2022, 2.3% in 2021 and 2.2% in 2020, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the US Department of Labor.
Overall, 15 of the 18 of the categories followed by Milling & Baking News, a sister publication of World Grain, finished higher for the year.
The gains in the grain-based foods categories were comparable to other food and beverage categories during 2024. For instance, the index for meats, poultry, fish and eggs increased 2.2% in 2024 after rising 1.8% in 2023. Meanwhile, the index for fruits and vegetables increased 0.7% in 2024 after a 2.5% gain in 2023, and milk fell 0.1% in 2024 after a 0.6% increase in 2023. Overall, the index for all items increased 2.9% in 2024, which compared with a gain of 4.1% in 2023.
“The CPI numbers released today continue to show how tenacious inflation can be,” said Andy Harig, vice president of tax, trade, sustainability and policy development at FMI — The Food Industry Association. “All items increased 2.9% over the past 12 months. Food-at-home inflation rose 0.3% in December, resulting in an increase of 1.8% year-over-year.
“Even as the top-line food price inflation numbers rose last month, much of this increase was driven by a few specific commodities like eggs, bacon, and cereals and bakery products. It is important to keep an eye on these and other commodities even as the food industry works diligently to address ongoing supply challenges. The good news is that consumers tell us they are optimistic about the year ahead, as 44% of grocery shoppers expect their household finances will be better off a year from now than they are today. This bodes well for long-term inflation prospects and demonstrates that consumers continue to be resilient.”
The price index for Bakery Products advanced 0.9% in 2024. The category posted increases of 9% in 2024, 12.7% in 2022, 2.5% in 2021 and 2.4% in 2020. Two segments within this category — bread and fresh biscuits, rolls and muffins — were introduced in 1998 with a base of December 1997. All other products are based on a 1982-84 average.
In the bread segment, the index increased 0.4% in 2024. The index increased 9.6% in 2023, 11.6% in 2022, 2% in 2021 and 3.6% in 2020. Within the segment, white bread decreased 0.1%, its first year-over-year decline since 2016. The index was 10.4% higher in 2023, 11.4% higher in 2022, 1.1% higher in 2021 and 4.3% higher in 2020. Bread other than white, meanwhile, finished stronger, increasing 0.9% after rising 8.6% in 2023, 11.9% in 2022, 2.9% in 2021 and 3% in 2020.
The index for cakes, cupcakes and cookies continued its upward climb, rising 0.8% in 2024 after climbing 8.9% in 2023, 12.4% in 2022, 2.6% in 2021 and 1.3% in 2020.
The CPI for other bakery products increased 1.3%, its sixth consecutive year-over-year increase, which followed three straight years of declines between 2016-18. In the other bakery products segment, fresh sweet rolls, coffee cakes and donuts were up 1.6%; crackers and other cracker products increased 2.9%; and frozen and refrigerated bakery products, pies, tarts and turnovers rose 0.3%.
The CPI for Cereals and Cereal Products decreased 0.3% in 2024, ending five straight years of year-over-year. Flour and prepared mixes advanced 0.6%, which comes on the heels of a 10.5% increase in 2023. Breakfast cereal increased 0.1% in 2024, which followed an increase of 7% in 2023, 12.5% in 2022, 2.5% in 2021 and 1.3% in 2020. Rice, pasta and corn meal decreased 1%, which followed increases of 6.2% in 2023, 12.8% in 2022, 0.6% in 2021 and 2.5% in 2020.
The CPI for fresh cakes and cupcakes increased 0.5% in 2024, which followed gains of 8.2% in 2023, 11.3% in 2022 and 3% in 2021. The index fell 0.9% in 2020 but increased 2.4% in 2019.
The index for cookies rose 1.1% in 2024, which followed gains of 9.8% in 2023, 12.7% in 2022, 1.4% in 2021 and 2.1% in 2020.
On a monthly basis, the CPI for baked foods and cereal products was stronger, rising 0.6% in December. Changes in the categories tracked by Milling & Baking News were mostly higher month over month.
The December index for Cereals and Bakery Products before seasonal adjustment was 356.6% of the 1982-84 average. For all food at home, the December index was 308.4, up 0.1% from November.
The CPI for Cereals and Cereal Products in December was 287.9, up 1% from November. The index for products within this category included: flour and prepared mixes, 314.6, up 0.7% from November; breakfast cereal, 280.2, up 0.8% from the previous month; and rice, pasta and corn meal, 294.2, up 1.4% from November.
The price index for Bakery Products in December was 396.6, up 0.5% from November.
The December index for bread was 240.4, up 0.7% from November. Under this heading, the CPI for white bread was 434.8, up 0.7% from November. For bread other than white, the index was 468.2, up 0.9% from November.
The price index for fresh biscuits, rolls and muffins in December was 236.6, up 0.1% from November. The December index for cakes, cupcakes and cookies was 374.4, down 0.4% from November. Under this segment, other price indexes included fresh cakes and cupcakes, 395.9, up 0.1% from November; and cookies, 352.5, down 0.9% from the previous month.
The CPI for other bakery products in December was 351.7, up 1.1% from November. Under this heading, other price indexes in December included: fresh sweet rolls, coffee cakes and donuts, 407.9, up 0.2% from November; crackers and cracker products, 423.9, up 2% from November; and frozen and refrigerated bakery products, pies, tarts and turnovers, 337.8, up 0.5%.
Source: World Grain