Posted on January, 31, 2025 at 09:59 am
This morning, AHDB published the latest 2024/25 UK supply and demand estimates for wheat, barley, maize and oats. Overall, minimal adjustments were made to availability and consumption figures since the last release in November. However, the release included a first look at wheat and barley exports this season, and a revision for the oat export forecast. Across all three major UK grown cereals, in 2024/25 exports are forecast well below usual levels.
For wheat, full season exports are forecast at 175 Kt, down 32% on the year, and the lowest since at least the turn of the century. This season to date (Jul-Nov), wheat exports have totalled 51.6 Kt, back 62% on year earlier levels, suggesting that pace will pick up later in the season. In terms of what this means for ending stocks, despite the smaller crop this year leading to a tighter than average balance, the extent of how little wheat will be exported, leads to particularly high stocks. At the end of the season, a total of 2.708 Mt of wheat is expected to be held in the UK, compared to a five-year average of 2.116 Mt.
Full season exports of barley are expected to reach just 500 Kt in 2024/25, down 36% on the year, and the lowest level of barley exports since 2012/13. From July to November, barley exports reached 189.3 Kt, down 43% compared to the same period last year. Similarly to wheat, while the supply and demand balance is expected to be tighter this season (largely due to increased barley usage in animal feed), the low level of exports leave heavier ending stocks. End-season barley stocks in 2024/25 are estimated at 1.548 Mt, up 27% on the year and well above the five-year average of 1.173 Mt.
Finally, for oats, exports are pegged at 50 Kt, down 57% on the year, and the lowest since 2020/21. So far this season (Jul-Nov), just 5.4 Kt of oats have been exported, meaning during the second half of the year, export pace is expected to quicken significantly. Again, although we are expecting a tighter than average balance, the minimal exports forecast this season, leave ending stocks up 57% on the year at 196 Kt. This is also above the five-year average of 135 Kt.
Total cereals ending stocks are estimated at 4.667 Mt compared to the five-year average of 3.636 Mt. With minimal exports projected, it is looking likely we will be heading into the 2025/26 season with larger than average carry-in stocks. Any changes in our price relationship to the continent will be key, to see any significant uplift in the UK’s export pace. Look out for more analysis on this in tomorrow’s Grain market daily.
Source: AHDB