KYIV, UKRAINE — Ukrainian grain production and exports in marketing year 2024-25 are forecast to decline significantly from the previous year, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture. 

Output for all grains is projected to fall by 13% while exports are seen declining by 26%, in part because the country is dealing with depleted grain inventories, the FAS said. Although grain ending stocks are expected to increase by 19% to 1.8 million tonnes this year, they are just a fraction of the reserves held prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

 

The biggest projected decline is in corn, where production is seen falling 24% from 2023-24 to 24.6 million tonnes, while exports are expected to fall 33% to 19.6 million tonnes, the FAS said. Corn ending stocks are projected at 722,000 tonnes, up slightly from the previous year but well below the 2.8 million tonnes that were in reserve at the end of 2022-23.

The FAS forecasts wheat output at 22.9 million tonnes, unchanged from 2023-24, but foresees a 19% decline in exports to 15 million tonnes. Barley production and export totals are expected to remain steady year on year at 5.9 million and 2.6 million tonnes, respectively.

“Based on export dynamics, exportable barley supplies should be depleted by January, and the remainder of the 2024-25 exports will rest on corn and wheat,” the FAS said. ”Post expects corn to comprise a significant share of Ukrainian grain production and exports for this period, while wheat exports might be held back due to growing domestic prices.

“Trade contacts note price rallies could encourage farmers to postpone their sales in the expectation for a better price. This might be especially relevant for milling wheat, as there is always demand from domestic millers.”

Part of Russia’s war strategy the last three years has been to target grain assets and disrupt the production and exporting of grain. 

After blockading exports from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports at the beginning of the war, Turkey and the United Nations brokered a deal that for a year allowed Ukraine to ship grain safely out of its ports. Russia pulled out of the agreement the summer of 2023, but Ukraine responded by establishing a shipping corridor that hugged its coast and those of friendly neighboring countries. As a result, Ukraine has been able to ship grain via the Black Sea mostly unimpeded over the past 18 months.

Source: World Grain