Posted on February, 19, 2025 at 10:12 am
Harvest forward contract prices indicate wheat, corn, and milo 2025 harvest prices are expected to be slightly below 2024 prices (Table1). Cotton prices are expected to be lower than 2024 cotton harvest prices. Fertilizer and fuel prices are also expected to be less than 2024 prices.
The best way to determine which crop to plant and harvest may be to calculate and compare the expected returns for each crop. Calculating expected returns requires predicted commodity prices and predicted input prices
Major crops in Texas and Oklahoma include wheat, cotton, corn, milo, and soybeans. The following 2025 harvest forward contract prices and basis are as of January 24, 2025. Updated forward contract prices may be obtained by contacting nearby grain facilities or checking cotton futures contract prices.
Pond Creek, Okla., 2025 harvest contract prices are $5.29 (KEN25 - $0.50) for wheat, $4.36 (ZCZ25 - $0.25) for corn, $4.06 (ZCZ25 -$0.55) for milo, and $9.69 (ZSX25 - $0.80) for soybeans. KE is hard red winter wheat futures contracts. ZC is corn and ZS is soybean futures contracts. N represents July, X is November, and Z is December. For example, KEN25 is the Chicago hard red winter wheat July 2025 futures contract.
Perryton, Texas, 2025 harvest contract prices are $5.19 (-$0.60 basis) for wheat, $4.86 (-$0.20 basis) for corn, $4.26 (-$0.35 basis) for milo, and $9.19 (-$1.30 basis) for soybeans.
Weatherford, Okla., 2025 contract prices are $5.04 (-$0.75) for wheat, $4.31 (-$0.30) for corn, $3.96 (-$0.65) for milo, and $9.59 (-$0.90) for soybeans.
On Jan. 24, 2024, Pond Creek’s harvest forward contract prices were $5.48 (-$0.55 basis) for wheat (compared to $5.29; -$0.50 basis for 2025); $4.50 (-$0.25 basis) for corn ($4.36; -0.24 basis for 2025); $4.20 (-$0.55 basis) for milo ($4.06; -$0.80 for 2025), and $11.14 (-$0.75 basis) for soybeans ($9.69; -$0.80 for 2025).
Corn, and milo 2025 harvest forward contract prices are slightly below January 2024 harvest forward contract prices. Wheat 2025 prices are $0.19 less and soybean prices are $1.47 less than last year.
It’s interesting to note that the average Pond Creek January 2024 wheat forward contract price for harvest delivery was $5.68. The average Pond Creek, June through August 2024, cash wheat price was $5.35. The lower harvest price is probably factored in 2025 wheat harvest Forward contract prices.
The average Pond Creek January 2024 corn harvest forward contract price was $4.59. The average Pond Creek corn harvest price was $3.98.
Perryton and Weatherford 2024 and 2025 harvest forward contract price relationships are about the same as Pond Creek’s price relationships.
On Jan. 24, 2025, the ICE/US December 2025 (CTZ25) cotton futures contract price was $69.50. On Jan. 24, 2024, the CTZ24 cotton futures contract price was $80. This implies that the market expects 2025 harvested cotton prices to be about $10 less than 2024 cotton prices.
Oklahoma January 2025 fertilizer prices are mostly lower than in January 2024 (Table 2). MAP (11-52-0) is 5%, Liquid (28-0-0) is 8% percent, Urea (46-0-0) is 11%, and Potash (0-0-60) is 8% lower than in 2024. DAP (18-46-0) is 5% higher than in 2024.
The January average Oklahoma farm diesel prices were $3.16 in 2024 and dropped to $2.65 in 2025.
2025 crop, fertilizer and fuel prices are mostly lower than 2024 prices. Predicted prices are essential for calculating the expected returns for alternative crops and in selecting the crop with the highest odds of producing a profit.
Table 1. Pond Creek, Okla., Wheat, Corn, Milo, Soybean, and Cotton Pricesa.
January 2024 Forward Contract
|
Wheat Harvest Average Price |
$ 5.48 |
$ 5.35 |
$ 5.29 |
|
Corn Harvest Price |
$ 4.50 |
$ 3.98 |
$ 4.36 |
|
Milo Harvest Price |
$ 4.20 |
$ 3.83 |
$ 4.06 |
|
Soybean Harvest Price |
$ 11.14 |
$ 9.41 |
$ 9.69 |
|
Cotton ICE/US (CTZ) Price |
$ 80.00 |
$70.50 |
$ 69.50 |
aSource: Comark Equity Alliance, Enid Oklahoma.
Table 2. Average Oklahoma Fertilizer Pricesa.
January
|
2024 |
2025 |
|
MAP (11-52-0) |
$ 834 |
|
DAP (18-46_0) |
$ 720 |
|
Liquid (28-0-0) |
$ 328 |
|
Urea (46-0-0) |
$ 547 |
|
(0-0-60) |
$ 516 |
Source: Farm Progress