Posted on February, 21, 2025 at 08:54 am
Tied to large crops in the United States and Brazil, global soybean production in marketing year 2024-25 is forecast to expand by 5% over the previous year, according to the International Grains Council’s (IGC) most recent Grain Market Report.
The report, released on Feb. 20, estimates this year’s crop at a record 418 million tonnes, up from 396 million in 2023-24.
“With gains spanning feed, food and industrial segments, record (soybean) processing is anticipated, while inventories are pegged at a new high (82 million tonnes, up 11% year on year),” the IGC said.
The IGC cut its estimate of world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2024-25 by 3 million tonnes from its January report to 2.301 billion tonnes. If realized, it would fall just short of last year’s record output of 2.309 billion.
“The main change is for maize (corn), tied to worsening South American prospects, but with a downgrade also for sorghum,” the IGC said.
The IGC lowered its total grains consumption forecast slightly from January to 2.334 billion tonnes, which would still be a record. Cumulative ending stocks are placed at 576 million tonnes, down by 5% year on year and the smallest total in a decade.
Trade of total grains is forecast 1 million tonnes lower month on month, mainly reflecting cuts to China’s sorghum and wheat import figures, the IGC said.
While 2024-25 wheat production (797 million tonnes) and consumption (806 million tonnes) are seen as virtually changed from January and the previous year, the Council is predicting an 8% decline in trade at 197 million tonnes.
Maize acreage is tentatively seen higher in the coming season, including a potential expansion in the main exporters, the IGC said.
The 2024-25 global rice supply-and- demand balance sheet is little-changed from January, with the IGC forecasting record production, use and trade.
The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Prices Index (GOI) was virtually unchanged from the previous month at 221. While average grains export quotations increased, rice and soybean prices were mostly in retreat.
Overall, the GOI is 2% lower compared to February 2024.
Source: World Grain