Posted on February, 26, 2025 at 09:35 am
Maize (corn) prices have risen in recent weeks as production forecasts have been cut due to adverse weather affecting planting in Brazil and Argentina.
In its Feb. 20 Grain Market Report, the International Grains Council (IGC) said maize output rose by 4% over the previous four weeks with advances at all key origins. It noted a particular focus on prospects for South American harvests. Barley was up by 6% from the previous month’s report, while sorghum followed maize higher.
In its Feb. 13 Feed Outlook Report, the US Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service (ERS) reduced its forecast for 2024-25 coarse grains production by 1.8 million tonnes to 1.492 billion.
“Reductions to corn (for Brazil and Argentina) and sorghum (Mexico and Argentina) production forecasts more than offset higher expected output for barley (Argentina and Kazakhstan) and oats (Kazakhstan),” the ERS said. “Most of the reduction is for world corn output, down 1.9 million tonnes from the previous month. Global sorghum output is down (400,000) tonnes this month — offset by a (440,000-tonne) increase in barley output.
“Changes in oats and rye output are minimal. This month, US coarse grains production is unchanged.”
The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service in its Feb. 11 Grain: World Markets and Trade report noted that since the January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, maize export bids for all major origins rose. US bids were up $11 per tonne to $226.
“The January WASDE report estimated tighter-than-expected corn production amid strong export and domestic demand, lifting prices higher,” the FAS said. “Argentine export bids were up $18 per tonne to $232, while Brazil bids also rose $18 per tonne to $244.
“Forecasts for reduced production in both countries are supporting higher bids. Ukraine export bids rose $9 per tonne to $227, as exportable supplies from a smaller crop continue to decline.”
In its Feb. 17 Corn Market Report, the European Confederation of Maize Production (CEPM) said prices for maize in Chicago fell slightly in the first week of February.
“Traders are reassured by the relative lull in (US President) Donald Trump’s customs announcements,” the French-based organization said. “Demand remains robust in the United States. Last week, export contracts reached 1.5 million tonnes, at the top end of operators’ expectations.
“In Argentina, the rains have returned, helping to stabilize the situation for early sowings, in the grain filling phase, and to improve that of late sowings, in flowering.”
However, conditions have not remained favorable, and the UK’s Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) said on Feb. 19 that “last week, Argentina’s Rosario grains exchange also revised its maize production estimate down by 2 million tonnes on the month and 6.5 million lower on the year to 46 million, due to further declines in crop conditions.”
In Brazil, the relative lull in the rains affecting the center-west has enabled a marked acceleration in soybean harvesting and Safrinha maize sowing, it said.
“On (Feb. 8), in Mato Grosso, the leading producer state, Safrinha maize sowings had reached 23%, compared with an average of 33% at that date,” the AHDB said, noting that it rose from only 6% the week before.
AHDB said the projection for the 2024-25 Brazilian maize crop is 122 million tonnes by the National Supply Company (CONAB) and 126 million by the USDA.
“Delays in soybean harvesting could push back Safrinha planting, potentially impacting its yield and the area planted,” the AHDB said.
Source: World Grain