Posted on February, 26, 2025 at 04:24 pm
As temperatures rise and weather patterns shift, Africa — despite contributing little to global emissions — finds itself on the frontlines of the climate crisis. A new study warns that the continent is “highly likely” to surpass 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming by 2040, accelerating devastating impacts on agriculture-based livelihoods.
Africa emits less than 4 per cent concentration of greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere. Approximately 65 per cent of the continent’s emissions come from the Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use sector, primarily through land conversion to cropland, livestock enteric fermentation, manure management, biomass burning, and nitrogen inputs on managed soils. This sector is not only a major source of emissions but also one of the most affected by climate impacts.
Africa's agriculture-dependent populations are already facing significant losses due to climate change, and these challenges will only intensify with increasing climate hazards, the study highlighted.
“The evidence of the negative impacts of climate change on African agriculture-based livelihood systems in the short and long term is so overwhelming that the populations should be prepared and capacitated to face the new normal of a continuously changing and varying climate,” the researchers wrote in their study.
The study examined how climate change is affecting Africa’s agriculture now and in the future. It assessed the risks to farming communities and food production, identified key priorities for adaptation and mitigation, and outlined necessary reforms in policies, technology, finance, and training to help African countries respond effectively.
It covered all five spatial subregions of Africa: Central Africa, East Africa, North Africa, Southern Africa, and West Africa.
Africa’s annual average temperature has been rising at a rate exceeding 0.5°C per decade over the past 30 years. Some subregions are warming faster than the global average of 1°C, with Southern Africa's mean annual surface temperature already having increased by 1.2°C since pre-industrial times (1850–1900).
Studies project greater warming intensity in North, Southern, and West Africa, particularly in semi-arid and arid areas. Meanwhile, precipitation patterns across the continent remain highly variable. North, Southern, and West Africa have seen declines in annual rainfall, while highland areas in Central and East Africa have experienced increases.
Africa is also expected to experience rising sea levels, with an average increase of half a metre projected. This will have serious consequences for the Nile Delta and coastal regions in East, North, and West Africa.
The continent is no stranger to extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts, floods, tropical cyclones, wildfires and frosts or snow due to global climate change. In the past decade, East Africa recorded its six hottest years on record. Future projections suggest more frequent and severe droughts in West Africa, particularly in the Sahel, as well as intensifying seasonal agricultural droughts in East Africa. Southern Africa has seen an increase in droughts and floods between 1960 and 2018.
East Africa has faced repeated droughts during farming seasons. The region has also experienced major floods in 1997, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2024 due to more frequent heavy rainfall and fewer dry spells. In Southern Africa, both droughts and floods have become more common between 1960 and 2018.
These climate shifts are already affecting crop yields and livelihoods. One study found that maize yields have decreased in over 89 per cent of harvested maize areas in Central Africa due to rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns. Suitable climates for maize cultivation in Central Africa are projected to decline by 33.5 per cent-34.6 per cent by 2070.
“It is crystal clear in this article that African agriculture-based production systems and livelihoods have experienced significant losses and damages from climate change and extreme weather events. This has increased food insecurity and poverty in many households, especially smallholder, widening the inequality and inducing various forms of injustices including distributive, procedural and recognition,” the researchers wrote.
The Loss and Damage Fund was established during the 28th Conference of Parties (COP28) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Dubai. Researchers emphasize the need for the fund to be distributed in a timely and transparent manner, considering various principles of justice.
This could play a crucial role in supporting a fair transition and financing projects aimed at reducing the harmful effects of climate change on Africa’s agriculture-based livelihoods and production systems. By doing so, it could contribute to improving food security, eliminating hunger and poverty, and maximizing the benefits of climate mitigation efforts.
The researchers propose significant changes, such as adapting cropping, livestock, and fishery systems to withstand climate challenges and investing in scientific advancements, technology, and innovation. They highlight the importance of restoring neglected or underused crops and livestock genetic resources, improving soil fertility and health, rehabilitating degraded land, and protecting natural ecosystems and biodiversity. Additionally, they stress the need for better access to quality education, training, and information technologies, as well as the development of markets and new opportunities for distribution and trade.
The paper also outlines a framework to guide Africa toward low-emission and climate-resilient development. One key aspect is distributive justice, which focuses on the fair allocation of resources, opportunities, and responsibilities at local, national, regional, and global levels, particularly considering communities and systems most affected by climate change. It also takes into account intergenerational equity, ensuring that future generations are considered when making investments.
Another component is procedural justice, which emphasizes inclusive participation in decision-making, full transparency, and access to complete information in climate risk management processes.
Lastly, recognition justice is highlighted, which ensures that all stakeholders are acknowledged and respected. This includes establishing legal frameworks that promote self-respect and social structures that foster self-esteem.
Source: Down to Earth