Posted on February, 28, 2025 at 05:04 pm
Increased supplies and higher ending stocks are in store for US wheat in the 2025-26 marketing year beginning June 1, according to the Grains and Oilseeds Outlook issued by the US Department of Agriculture at its Agricultural (USDA) Outlook Forum on Feb. 27.
The USDA projected US wheat supply in 2025 at 2.830 billion bushels, up 32 million bushels, or 1%, from 2.798 billion bushels in 2024 and compared with 2.512 billion bushels in 2023.
The Department projected 2025 wheat production at 1.926 billion bushels, down 45 million bushels, or 2%, from 2024 and compared with 1.804 billion bushels in 2023. The recent five-year average wheat outturn was 1.778 billion bushels.
Total wheat planted area for 2025 was projected at 47 million acres, up 0.9 million acres from last year. The lower production forecast reflected a slight reduction in harvested area to 38.4 million acres (from 38.5 million in 2024) and an average yield of 50.1 bushels per acre, down from 51.2 bushels in 2024 but up from 48.7 bushels per acre in 2023.
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The National Agricultural Statistics Service of the USDA on Jan. 10 in its Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report estimated winter wheat seeded area at 34.1 million acres, up 2% from 2024.
The Grains and Oilseeds Outlook said “combined spring and durum wheat plantings for 2025 are projected higher than last year with more area available in the Northern Plains with an expected reduction in soybean plantings, although higher expected net returns for corn could limit this increase.”
Wheat imports in 2025 were projected at 110 million bushels, down 20 million bushels from the 130-million-bushel forecast for the current year and compared with 138 million bushels in 2023.
The USDA preliminarily projected the carryover of wheat on June 1, 2026, at 826 million bushels, up 32 million bushels, or 4%, from a forecast 794 million bushels in 2024.
Source: World Grain